sockeye

[Redfrog]

How does it look for sockeye this year. Is there gonna be a recreational opening? Native? commercial? Any idea on numbers expected?

[MB_Boy]

I have heard numbers are down big time from last year. As for openings.....flip a 3 sided coin and its anybodys guess.

Expect the various interest groups to start getting air time on the news soon.

[Moosehunter64]

Tons of Sockeye in Port Alberni right now.Natives are making tons of money netting them in the Somass river.Fishing in the canal is spotty because the fish are coming right through and heading up stream right away and not holding in the canal because of all the rain we had and the cooler water.They say it is going to be a record run here.

[Chopper333]

The Alberni Inlet was dead yesterday....very little action...

[MB_Boy]

I should add.....I am talking about the Fraser and have also heard good things about Alberni though.

[r106]

Isn't this year and next on the same cycle as those 2 very poor runs a few years ago on the Fraser?

[MichelD]

No. 1 NEWS RELEASE July 6, 2012
The Fraser River Panel (Panel) of the Pacific Salmon Commission has developed management plans for 2012 Fraser River sockeye salmon fisheries in Panel Area waters.

Pre-season expectations
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) provided forecasts of Fraser River sockeye salmon abundance, timing and diversion rate to the Panel, as well as a schedule for calculating sockeye spawning escapement targets at different run sizes. In addition, DFO also provided forecast of river migration conditions.

The 2012 cycle has the lowest average return of the four cycles of Fraser River sockeye with an average return (1956-2008) of 3,849,000 fish. The total Fraser sockeye forecast mid-point or 50% probability level is 2,119,000 fish, for 2012. The primary reason for the forecast of a small 2012 return is that the number of effective female sockeye spawners in the 2008 brood was the lowest on the 2012 cycle line since 1968.


DFO has advised that Fraser River sockeye salmon forecasts for 2012 remain highly uncertain due to variability in annual survival rates and uncertainty about changes in their productivity.

To put the sockeye run size forecast uncertainty into context, there is a one in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below 1,203,000 fish (the 25% probability level forecast) and there is a three in four chance that the actual number of returning sockeye will be at or below 3,763,000 fish (the 75% probability level forecast). For pre-season planning purposes, the Panel used the 50% probability level forecast (equal chance of a higher or lower return) of 2,119,000 fish.

The Early Stuart sockeye return forecast at the 50% probability level is 99,000 fish (ranges from 61,000 to 161,000 fish at the 25% and 75% probability levels). The forecast for Early Summer-run sockeye at the 50% probability level is 277,000 fish (ranges from 145,000 to 522,000 fish at the 25% and 75% probability levels). The Summer-run sockeye return forecast at the 50% probability level is 1,585,000 fish (ranges from 917,000 to 2,776,000 fish at the 25% and 75% probability levels), with Chilko sockeye expected to comprise approximately 35% of the total Summer-run sockeye return. The Late-run sockeye return forecast at the 50% probability level is 158,000 fish (ranges from 46,000 to 304,000 fish at the 25% and 75% probability levels). For the 2012 management season, Raft, North Thompson, and Harrison sockeye will be managed as part of the Summer-run group.


Marine conditions were used to forecast the 50% marine timing of Early Stuart sockeye through Area 20 of June 29, which is earlier than average. Based on this Early Stuart timing, the expected marine timing of Chilko sockeye is August 3. The pre-season forecast of the proportion of Fraser River sockeye salmon diverting their migration to the Fraser River through Johnstone Strait is 43%.


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[russm]

Could be 10 fish could be 10 million,predictions never seem to be close to what actually arrives.

[steel_ram]

The Alberni Inlet was dead yesterday....very little action...

Yes, more small springs being caught on sockeye gear than sockeye. The seiners were out, don't no how they were doing but saw a few very light looking boats heading for home.

[Redfrog]

Thanks For the info guys.

I guess predicting this run must be very difficult. It has been the same political football for over 40 years that I know of personally, and likely a lot longer.

Can it really be that hard with today's technology?

[ryanb]

What it really comes down to I think, is that we haven't got the foggiest idea what goes on out in the open ocean. They can measure the returns and escapement easily enough, but there is neither the will nor the resources to track what the salmon do during their ocean cycle.

[Jack Russell]

there is will and technology outside of the government bureaucracy, but the government does not have the will, nor will they expend the resources and more importantly, the money, to get this work done.

Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking program = POST