fireguy
02-07-2012, 10:04 PM
Thanks to Slinky Pickle here is a link to the report
http://www.ospreydesign.ca/forum_pics/Okanagan%20Moose%20Inventory%20Jan%2017%202012.pdf
Using the revised moose winter habitat suitability mapping (Fig. 5), and the moose strata densities from only the past 5 years (Table 6), the regional winter moose population estimate was 3470 with a 90% confidence interval of 32% (Table 7). This figure is considerably higher than the previous habitat-based estimate of 2174 moose (Gyug 2007). No estimate of the confidence interval was available for the 2007 estimate.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Survey-based moose winter range population estimates in 2010-2012 did not match those derived from habitat suitability in 2007, with numbers generally increased by up to double the 2007 estimates. Even once habitat suitability was revised, and current (<5-year old) density estimates used, population estimates derived by the two methods were not necessarily a good fit on an MU by MU basis except for the surveys conducted in 2011-2012. On that basis, I recommend:
1. Where survey-based population estimates are available, these should be used as the basis for any revisions in hunting regulations.
2. The moose winter population estimates developed based solely on habitat suitability by MU should be treated with caution, and not used for revising hunting regulations unless these can be confirmed with further SRB surveys.
3. Further SRB moose surveys in the next two years in 3 to 6 MUs would yield much higher confidence in the habitat-based estimates, after which the fit of the habitat-based estimates to the survey-derived estimates should be re-evaluated, and their use in possible revision of hunting regulations considered.
4. First priority for future SRB surveys should be 8-08 as the last of the MUs surveyed in 1999 which has yet to be resurveyed.
5. Other priority MUs for SRB surveys in any given year should include some of those never surveyed with >100 moose predicted to be present (8-01, 8-07, 8-09 and 8-15), and those previously surveyed >5 years ago with >100 moose predicted to be present, and where past estimates are out of line with current (2012) habitat-based estimates including (in no particular order): a. 8-06 (last surveyed in 2001),
b. 8-14 (last surveyed in 2001),
c. 8-23 (last surveyed in 2003),
d. 8-24 (last surveyed in 2003).
6. Flight time allotted for SRB per MU will range from 15 to 30 hours, with 20-25 hours used as a target for future planning. This assumes that in-the-field refuelling of helicopters can be arranged using fuel caches to minimize ferry time.
http://www.ospreydesign.ca/forum_pics/Okanagan%20Moose%20Inventory%20Jan%2017%202012.pdf
Using the revised moose winter habitat suitability mapping (Fig. 5), and the moose strata densities from only the past 5 years (Table 6), the regional winter moose population estimate was 3470 with a 90% confidence interval of 32% (Table 7). This figure is considerably higher than the previous habitat-based estimate of 2174 moose (Gyug 2007). No estimate of the confidence interval was available for the 2007 estimate.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Survey-based moose winter range population estimates in 2010-2012 did not match those derived from habitat suitability in 2007, with numbers generally increased by up to double the 2007 estimates. Even once habitat suitability was revised, and current (<5-year old) density estimates used, population estimates derived by the two methods were not necessarily a good fit on an MU by MU basis except for the surveys conducted in 2011-2012. On that basis, I recommend:
1. Where survey-based population estimates are available, these should be used as the basis for any revisions in hunting regulations.
2. The moose winter population estimates developed based solely on habitat suitability by MU should be treated with caution, and not used for revising hunting regulations unless these can be confirmed with further SRB surveys.
3. Further SRB moose surveys in the next two years in 3 to 6 MUs would yield much higher confidence in the habitat-based estimates, after which the fit of the habitat-based estimates to the survey-derived estimates should be re-evaluated, and their use in possible revision of hunting regulations considered.
4. First priority for future SRB surveys should be 8-08 as the last of the MUs surveyed in 1999 which has yet to be resurveyed.
5. Other priority MUs for SRB surveys in any given year should include some of those never surveyed with >100 moose predicted to be present (8-01, 8-07, 8-09 and 8-15), and those previously surveyed >5 years ago with >100 moose predicted to be present, and where past estimates are out of line with current (2012) habitat-based estimates including (in no particular order): a. 8-06 (last surveyed in 2001),
b. 8-14 (last surveyed in 2001),
c. 8-23 (last surveyed in 2003),
d. 8-24 (last surveyed in 2003).
6. Flight time allotted for SRB per MU will range from 15 to 30 hours, with 20-25 hours used as a target for future planning. This assumes that in-the-field refuelling of helicopters can be arranged using fuel caches to minimize ferry time.