Reg 3 2010 hunter survey information

[Kirby]

Ok so here is the numbers I got from the resident hunter surveys for Region 3

Mule Deer 4734 ~(4119 male 615 antlerless)
Moose 425 ~(344 male 85 antlerless)
WT Deer 827 ~(471 male 356 antlerless)
Sheep 20 Rams
Goat 6
Black bear: 497
Grizzly 2
Cougar 21 (17 male 4 female)
wolves 25

[coach]

Thanks, Kirby! Any historical information for comparison?

[coach]

Also - any way of breaking down the moose into LEH and spike/fork?

[coach]

Gotcha. Thanks, Kirby. I've often wondered how many spike/forks are actually taken from a region during the season. I would have to assume the number is pretty small in the big scheme of things.

[jeff]

how do they come up with these numbers ..theres no way they no how many me and my hunting buds got from reg 3 .which is a few .. so how do they get such an exact number

[6616]

how do they come up with these numbers ..theres no way they no how many me and my hunting buds got from reg 3 .which is a few .. so how do they get such an exact number

The numbers aren't exact, there's a 95% confidence interval (range) given and some of the ranges are pretty broad, while others are much narrower. The final number is the mean.

For example R3 mule deer = mean of 4734, but between 4404 and 5064 for 95% confidence. Data derived from 2010 hunter surveys. It's a very big spreadsheet,,, impossible to post on here. Will possibly get posted on the BCWF web page after the holidays.

[coach]

how do they come up with these numbers ..theres no way they no how many me and my hunting buds got from reg 3 .which is a few .. so how do they get such an exact number

Ever been hunting and had that feeling someone was watching you, Jeff?

[jeff]

Ever been hunting and had that feeling someone was watching you, Jeff?

haha ,good one ..but i always thought that was the animals not big brother

[jeff]

Have you guys ever gotten a hunter survey. Thats how. There is a variance in numbers

For example in 7-7(Giscome) the numbers are Total Estimate: 115 moose with 95% confidence of lower 69 upper being 161. Of that we had a sex ratio of 71(M):14(F):14(Juvenile) giving us a estimated harvest of 81.65 male moose, 16.1 female 16.1 calves.

If you take whats really worst case scenario you get 161 kills 114(M):22.54(F):22.52(Juvenile).

I provided the middle of the road estimate.

i may be wrong but i think the varience can be huge ...

[jeff]

You are wrong. I'm not a statistician, but I have taken statistical analysis courses and done it, you'd be amazed at how accurate it is. But there is a range and variance and that is directly tied to how reliable the information is. The larger the sample size (47,000 or 67,000? in BC I just can't remember) the better off you are.

i wont argue with ya.. you no more than i do .i never took no course on statistics..im still skeptic on the numbers

[Bc Deer Hunter]

Thats interesting... Thanks Kirby! Is there anyway you could put one up for region 8 ??!
Cheers
BCDH

[coach]

No real need to be a skeptic, Jeff. Statistics are used all the time and are scientifically proven to be accurate within a certain range. Everything is factored in, including people who don't bother to fill out the cards. It's not up to us to understand all the formulas, but the information is going to be quite accurate.

[ianwuzhere]

more people lie on the harvest data then most think.. good numbers.. i just think its a hard variable to estimate...
-it would be like putting a private survey to 60% of men regarding to penis size- we all know how accurate that will be..
thanx for the info tho..

[CanuckShooter]

Have you guys ever gotten a hunter survey. Thats how. There is a variance/range/confidence interval in the numbers

For example in 7-7(Giscome) the numbers are Total Estimate: 115 moose with 95% confidence between a low of 69 moose harvested and upper of 161 moose harvested. Of that we had a sex ratio of 71(M):14(F):14(Juvenile) giving us a estimated harvest of 81.65 male moose, 16.1 female 16.1 calves.

If you take whats really worst case scenario(upper value) you get 161 kills 114(M):22.54(F):22.52(Juvenile).

I provided the middle of the road estimate.


This is a surprise....a person would think that there would be more calves taken than cows which are on LEH. Anyone can shoot a calf but only those holding an antlerless leh can shoot a cow. Is this ratio similar in other areas with cow and calf openings???

[Bc Deer Hunter]

Here is what I got for 8
Reg 8
Elk 115 ~(102 antlered, 13 antlerless)
White-tailed 3604 ~(2125 Antlered, 1478 antlerless) Historically antlerless has been ~ 500... if memory serves me correctly
Mule Deer 3601 ~(3349 antlered, 252 antlerless)
Moose 166 (all male)
Sheep 21
Turkey 185
Black bear 371
Cougar 19

Thanks a lot! Nice knowing what your up against for the season's to come ;)