Odds on a Draw

[farside]

Was just wondering what your results have been over the years as far as getting a draw when an LEH is required.

For myself - 10yrs NO DRAW on anything :cry:
For my Daughter - she hasn't hunted long enough to deserve one.
For hubby - Cow Moose 9 yrs ago, bull moose 4 yrs ago

A friend of Hubbys - 2 island elk in 5 yrs (bow only) AMAZING:mrgreen:
A friend of hubbys - 12 yrs NO DRAW on anything:cry:

So - how has everyone else faired in the "equalized Lottery"?

[Kirby]

well, that also depends on the areas you are applying for. I never drew for years.then two years ago my luck changed, drew moose, and this year I drew goat.

Kirby

[brotherjack]

I never drew squat, even putting in for doe tags in areas a long way from anywhere reasonable people would want to hunt, with better than 1:1 odds from the previous year. Zilch. My wife got a doe tag her first year hunting.

[bsa30-06]

Drew once in the last 3 years,any bull moose mu3-17. The only year i didnt see a moose.

[marcus44]

I have been putting in for about 15 yrs now and only ever had 1 draw, whitey doe in region 8. Lots of those where in good chance area like 3:1 odds or abouts and the normal bighorn draw at about 400:1. As much as it would be nice to finally get a draw (specially for a moose) I will keep putting in every year, no matter what. Usually put 3 or 4 in per year.

[youngfellla]

Been putting in for 12 years now, have had 6 moose draws, 2 elk, 2 doe, 1 caribou, 2 goat, 1 sheep, and now a second grizzly draw. :mrgreen:

My brother has been putting in for 14 years and has not yet been drawn.:-(

[CanuckShooter]

Been putting in for 12 years now, have had 6 moose draws, 2 elk, 2 doe, 1 caribou, 2 goat, 1 sheep, and now a second grizzly draw. :mrgreen:

My brother has been putting in for 14 years and has not yet been drawn.:-(

Someone should track you down and pull that horse shoe out of your arse!! [smilie doesn't work]

late cow 20 years ago, bull moose 10 years ago, and doe draw last year. I think the system stinks and I only wish there was something we could do about it?

[mark]

2 moose 1 grizly and 1 bison draw in 15 years. i usually put in about 5 a year

[willyqbc]

my luck seems to run like canuckshooters. i have only really been putting in since they closed down the two week any bull moose season here.... so close to 10 years now I guess, maybe less. in that time i have drawn 5 moose tags, muley doe practically every year I put in for it (moose and doe are the only two I put in for every year).
I have only put in for the grizz draw twice and will be trying my luck for a second time this spring:mrgreen: ......you could say I'm VERY lucky in the draws.....for a dollar I'll touch your LEH cards before they get sent in!! hehehehe!!

Chris

[oldtimer]

In all the draws I have put in for ,last year for a friggin doe was the first one !!!! Only ever tried moose and does. Mike

[tmarschall]

I'm not sure how it works, but I have heard of some states where you get preference points for not being drawn if you apply for the same draw next year. The problem might be up there that there are just too many draws!!!! But you would think with computers today they could come up with something easily managed. You keep the same license number each year right?? That solves 90% of the problems right there. Maybe they could use a little of that "saved" gun registration money to come up with something. From the reports here, you may have an equitable system on paper, but reality is another story.

[3kills]

i have gotten two in the 8 years i have applied...gotta a moose like 3 years ago never seen a single moose and a goat the same year...last year my two years ago my ex drew white tail doe and moose her first time applying...

[slyfox]

12 years of draws and i have got 2 moose,2 grizz,1 goat,1 whitetail,2muleys and a turkey draw.P.S. and a cariboo all most forgot that one.

[livingston]

got a moose draw in 95 and 2003 and thats it.Have been putting in for elk on Vancouver Island for 10 years.also have put in for doe draws in reg 5 for 3 years.

[mcrae]

I have a buddy that got the 4-17 draw this year for grizz. The weird thing is he got that exact draw last year for grizz. Two years in a row? I always thought we had some kind of reduced odds system in place but I guess not. I am happy for him because he didn't get one last year and it really bummed him out but I understand why the LEH system pisses people off because it doesn't seem to work fairly.

[358mag]

Think this LEH drawcrap works on who you vote for. Seems like in this area all the dudes that vote NDP and work for the union always get LEH draw !!Maybe its time to go left wing and get luckly.

[RiverOtter]

I wonder about the system as well. I realize that higher odds equal less chance of drawing, but if you put in for a 3:1 draw, odds should be fairly good that you would get a draw once in 3 years; give or take. I have a goat draw with those same odds every year, and I have not drawn it in 10 years. Or when me and at least 4 other people I know put in for a draw with 4 or 5:1 odds and year after year and none of us are successful.

My question is this. When they post the tenative number of authorizations for each species/M.U.#, does that include the tags that are automatically given to the guide/outfitters? If so, that would explain a lot.

RO :(

[3kills]

mcrae555 i think the reduced odds is just on moose buti could be wrong....there was a post on here or another site last summer around leh time that had a link to a site the explained how the draw system worked....wish i could remember the link...

[slyfox]

I also got the grizz draw last year but the odds are 0.2 to 1 so the odds would have been 0.4 this year the lower the odds the more chance a person has.I think the reduced odds are on all animals exp deer.

[416]

Between 1996 and 2004 l applied for 69 draws in total and have been successfull with 18 of them.

[CanuckShooter]

I wonder about the system as well. I realize that higher odds equal less chance of drawing, but if you put in for a 3:1 draw, odds should be fairly good that you would get a draw once in 3 years; give or take. I have a goat draw with those same odds every year, and I have not drawn it in 10 years. Or when me and at least 4 other people I know put in for a draw with 4 or 5:1 odds and year after year and none of us are successful.

My question is this. When they post the tenative number of authorizations for each species/M.U.#, does that include the tags that are automatically given to the guide/outfitters? If so, that would explain a lot.

RO :(

Four of us put in for Goat on a regular basis at 1.1:1 odds....and are unsuccessful !! Something stinks in river-city...and that is all there is too it!! The LEH system is a scam.

[sealevel]

I have gone in cycle for a couple a got squat then i did pretty good for a couple years now i havent had a draw in 2 years.

[3kills]

u know for u guys that bitch about it and complain and call it a scam there is an fix for it....quit buying them...

[bigwhiteys]

From what I see in here the system is working and the people that are getting drawn also seem to be the ones putting in for the most!

Good on Them! Congratulations guys!

Some of the people in here complaining are the same people that complain in several other threads about many different issues. You can't help it. It's your mindset.

If you don't like it... Don't buy them and go hunt open season or spend some money and buy an outfitted hunt.

There are always solutions to your problems!

Happy Hunting!
Carl

[youngfellla]

My question is this. When they post the tenative number of authorizations for each species/M.U.#, does that include the tags that are automatically given to the guide/outfitters? If so, that would explain a lot.

No. The Limited Entry system is for Resident Hunters only. The number of tags issued to the outfitters is separate from the number of tags available to resident hunters.

As far as getting drawn once in 3 years if the odds are 3:1, you're not guaranteed anything. The LEH system is not a scam, just plain old 'luck of the draw'. If you don't get drawn, too bad.

[cowboy-up69]

In the 4 yars I been huntin, I havent put in for a LEH draw yet, so does that mean if I do this year I'll have a good chance of gettin drawn since it will be my first time puttin in for it???? :D Ahhhh, I know, its luck of the draw! Haha

[mcrae]

There is a little pamphlet on line about the LEH draw its got some good info.
There is an enhanced odds system in place province wide for all species except Whitetail and Mule deer. The way it reads to me is that if you are drawn the year before your odds are reduced by 50% compared to someone who was not drawn.

[CanuckShooter]

""
u know for u guys that bitch about it and complain and call it a scam there is an fix for it....quit buying them...
There is a little pamphlet on line about the LEH draw its got some good info.
There is an enhanced odds system in place province wide for all species except Whitetail and Mule deer. The way it reads to me is that if you are drawn the year before your odds are reduced by 50% compared to someone who was not drawn.""

If it looks like a scat, and smells like a scat, then that's exactly what it is !! The LEH is a scat...I mean scam... when you see the so called 'enhanced odds system' giving the same hunter, the same bull moose draw, in the same MU, several years running, it becomes obvious that either the system doesn't work...or we are being fed a line of BS. I don't call that complaining, I call that a reality check.

I figure that I have to spend two days travelling and burn up a couple of hundred dollars in fuel to hunt moose in the Peace Region...so I wonder if we can buy a LEH tag off a guide, or directly from the ministery, for say $300?? It would save wear and tear on my rig...give me two more days of hunting...be good for the environment [not wasting gas]and save the cost of applying for an LEH.

[Ozone]

Ive put in for lots and lots and lots of Island elk LEHs and will put in until I get one. One year it was 97:1 but I know this joining in as I have done my research. The only way your guarantied is if the odds are 1:1 or lower.
I have also put in for 5 moose draws and got 1, not bad odds in my line off thinking, as the odds were higher.

[bigwhiteys]

CanuckShooter,

You need to read how the LEH "Enhanced Odds" system works. It's not a scam. It's just unfortunate you haven't been drawn.

http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/fw/wild/documents/leh_system.pdf <-- This Might Help You.



I figure that I have to spend two days travelling and burn up a couple of hundred dollars in fuel to hunt moose in the Peace Region...so I wonder if we can buy a LEH tag off a guide, or directly from the ministery, for say $300?? It would save wear and tear on my rig...give me two more days of hunting...be good for the environment [not wasting gas]and save the cost of applying for an LEH


I think the best solution to your problem would be for you to go to your local farmer and buy a side of buffalo or beef. Then you wouldn't be dropping so much money in gas (oh my) and you would save all that wear and tear on your road hunting rig.

Furthermore we wouldn't need to listen to you whine and complain about it. I can't stand negative people.

Happy Hunting!
Carl

[MichelD]

I posted a little note in the Island elk thread on the Vancouver Island page about my experience with the Island elk draw.

Despite hunting for 35 years, I've only seriously been applying for LEH for 10 or 12 years. So far I've been drawn for moose once, V.I. elk once, goat twice and mule deer doe once.

[slyfox]

Take it easy man.The poor guy has had no luck.

[bigwhiteys]

Slyfox,

You're right... It would suck not getting drawn. But complaining about the issue to other hunters is pretty much moot how can we help him?

I haven't even put in ONCE for LEH as I've always hunted the open season. This year will be my first and I plan to drop several hundred bucks on the special Elk & Sheep tags.

If I don't get drawn? Oh Well!

Happy Hunting!
Carl

[tmarschall]

I read thru the pamphlet on the LEH system. So they do have some system for improving chances, thats good to see. But as has been expressed here, and the way the system is designed, the chances of NOT EVER being drawn do exist. The system could be changed to ensure getting a draw more regularly by giving bonus points when you do not get drawn, your bonus points keep adding up until you are drawn. Your system, according to the pamphlet, only gives a "penalty" to the previous year's hunters who were drawn, no consideration is given to any hunter who may have applied for 3 or 4 years and never been drawn. For example, if not drawn previous year, you could increase chances (or odds) by 15%, 30% for not being drawn in past two years, 45% for three years etc.The system would still be fair without bias.

When I studied wildlife and fisheries science here, we were required to take a course in statistics. I wonder if your wildlife folks have the same requirement. "statistics" are funny creatures, difficult to understand sometimes. But once you understand them, you can train them to do whatever you want them to do and keep the most people happy. Maybe run it up the flag pole, see if anyone salutes it... Tom

[slyfox]

I do think that your right about the draw its not a scam.I have been trying for a sheep or elk draw for 10 years no luck put ill keep trying.Put you are right about one thing Bigwhiteys if people think its a scam dont do the draws it will make my odds and yours better!

[tmarschall]

slyfox... it is not a scam, its just a system that allows for your kind of bad luck. Read my previous post and it might show you the error of the system.

[slyfox]

Tmarschell i dont think it a scam i do have alot of luck with the draw just not on sheep and elk but not bitching about it.I just got a spring grizz draw.

[tmarschall]

Yeah.... its all in the luck of the draw, congrats on the Griz. What area? The system could still be changed to help the folks with poor luck. Hope to see some pics when the time comes... Tom

[slyfox]

Up north 6-19 around dease lake.

[3kills]

sayin the system should change so more people get drawn is like sayin the should change the 649 or the super 7...its a lottery its all on luck of the draw and like i have said before and i will say it again again and again u dont like the way it works dont put in for it.....i would like to here the people that bitch about the leh bitch if some one that one 12 mill on the 649 last year wins it agin in a year or two....its low odds but stranger sht has happened :D

[mcrae]

I take it all in stride you win some you lose some. I figure it could be worse. Imagine if they didn't let me hunt at all! I got my grizz draw this spring after many years trying so this year I won!

[tmarschall]

Well... taking it in stride for some is the way to go, no need to get your feathers all in a bunch. Some see a few problems with the system. Its not that they are whining or complaining... just stating facts. Surely the system was designed with the best intentions. But like most programs, periodic review on their effectiveness is a good thing. Like review of the gun registration... aren't you glad not everyone "took it in stride". The LEH is a good working system, but there are ways to improve it for the benefit of all...... Tom

[mcrae]

Just curious why I am getting my feathers all in a bunch? That to me implies I am angry about something. My point is I don't get worked up if I don't get drawn;) The system is in place and I work with it. If it changes great but until then I have enough stress...... Its a hunting forum if guys want to spout off about something that they disagree with I figure this is a good place to do it. No problems there from me. The gun registration is another issue and I don't believe its fair to compare a statement on LEH to the firearms registration because I did what I could to work against it like most gun owners.

[CanuckShooter]

CanuckShooter,

I think the best solution to your problem would be for you to go to your local farmer and buy a side of buffalo or beef. Then you wouldn't be dropping so much money in gas (oh my) and you would save all that wear and tear on your road hunting rig.

Furthermore we wouldn't need to listen to you whine and complain about it. I can't stand negative people.

Happy Hunting!
Carl

Now now Bigwhitey...don't go all getting in a knot on me!! What you call a whine is merely expressing an opinion on a subject that affects all of us that apply for LEH tags. It appears that there are alot of hunters on this forum that think the system is OK and fair....my opinion differs, because I have seen it not working and would like to see it revised to bring a little equity into play. I personally think that an applicant shouldn't have to wait 15 to 20 years to get a draw, while the 'lucky one' gets multiples every season, that's all. Especially if the applicants cannot afford to exercise the alternatives...travel, guided hunts etc. If we don't have a dialog on these subjects the ministry will just go on about their merry way and think everything is just hunky dory.

Although for some of us, that play by 'the rules' by choice, there is always the alternative to just exercise our aboriginal rights....and not get accused of whining....about all that expense... :-)) Happy Hunting!

[bigwhiteys]

Alright CanuckShooter...

I am sorry for jumping on ya there... As I stated earlier... I have never even put in for LEH once I have always hunted the open season. I'll make up my mind this year when I put in for various draws mainly the sheep/elk tags. From what I can see here there are many successful draws each year and plenty of happy hunters.

Personally and this is just my opinion I think that if someone IS drawn and IS successful that maybe they shouldn't be allowed to put in for that specific LEH in the NEXT years draw. THAT in my opinion would be a fairer system and obviously prevent people from getting the same draw back-to-back while others put in and get nothing.



If we don't have a dialog on these subjects the ministry will just go on about their merry way and think everything is just hunky dory.


I totally agree... The problem is that as hunters our dialogue here is relatively meaningless unless as a group we are prepared to act on it and excerise some leverage.



Although for some of us, that play by 'the rules' by choice, there is always the alternative to just exercise our aboriginal rights....and not get accused of whining....about all that expense... :smile:) Happy Hunting!


I actually have my Metis status card. No hunting or fishing rights are included though unless I lived in the Kelly lake reserve or Ontario.

Do I agree with the hunting/fishing rights and priveledges that aboriginals have myself included? In short the answer is no but that's an entirely different thread!

Happy Hunting!
Carl

[tmarschall]

McRae... not sure why I worded my post that way, poor choice of sentence organization. I was referring to those who seemed to have gotten their feathers in a bunch, so to speak. Sorry for the confusion.

Bigwhiteys, yes, the dialogue here is meaningless, unless it get directed to the right place where action can be taken. I reckon some day someone who has read these posts might be in a position to do something about it. Not that I will ever be in that position, but maybe some of my comments and ideas may filter on down. As far as organizing as a group to take action, sounds good, the reality of it may be a can of worms.

[cwocarsten]

It has been 14 years since I drew a Moose or Elk tag. However I drew 2 doe tags and a turkey in 14 years. I made the mistake of writing a letter to the LEH (coincidently 14yrs ago) gods asking them if they would ever consider the draw system like they have in Alberta. In Alberta if you do not draw that year then you get 1 point to carry over, and each year you get apoint if you do not draw for your area until you have enough points to get a draw. Works real good with a foursome. You stagger your applications and can plan for certain areas that my for example need 4-5 pts for a Moose draw. The LEH Gods answered my letter with a 3 page letter on how our system is better, and ironically I have not had a Moose or Elk draw since even in low odd areas. Good thing I get my Elk every year anyhow.

[tmarschall]

Carsten... maybe its time for another letter. Get together with a few other folks and see what might happen.... nothing ventured nothing gained. Receiving a reply like that to your request can be very disheartening. I'm not sure if pointing out the statistical problem being that there is a possibility that people can NEVER be drawn under the current system might help. Good luck!!

[CanuckShooter]

Alright CanuckShooter...

... As I stated earlier... I have never even put in for LEH once I have always hunted the open season. I'll make up my mind this year when I put in for various draws mainly the sheep/elk tags. From what I can see here there are many successful draws each year and plenty of happy hunters.

Personally and this is just my opinion I think that if someone IS drawn and IS successful that maybe they shouldn't be allowed to put in for that specific LEH in the NEXT years draw. THAT in my opinion would be a fairer system and obviously prevent people from getting the same draw back-to-back while others put in and get nothing.
Happy Hunting!
Carl

I have to agree, one of the biggest drawbacks to the system is the fact that the 'enhanced odds' system that is currently in place does not work. That has been proven upon more than one occassion by some applicants being successful in a given LEH draw in back to back seasons. I am sure there are many of us who are aware of a circumstance when this has happened? That's why I call it a scam. I would really really like that goat draw that I have been putting in for before the old legs get too tired to climb the mountain, just once please...and the buffalo..just once please...otherwise there are ample opportunities in the general openings for other hunts for most of us.

I also find it a stretch to believe that at 1.1to1 and 1.3to1 odds that the four of us that apply for the same goat draw are unsuccessful year after year after year after year. My momma taught me to be careful of a con...and the more I look at this one it looks like a con job. Not whining...or complaining...just stating an observation.

CS>>a happy hunter!!

[tmarschall]

CanuckShooter, for sure... at 1.1 to1 and 1.3 to 1 odds, it is definitely hard to believe that you have never been drawn. However, statistically speaking, that is a definite possibility due to the way the system was set up. The point system described for Alberta would eliminate the statistical possibility of never being drawn. I think it is the same point system that many states down here use. The theory of it being a con job or a scam can't be ruled out, but there would be no logic to it, unless you or one of your buddies PO'd the wrong person. Maybe if a few letters reached the right desk pointing out the statistical flaw in the system, they would change it??? Stranger things have happened!!!! Heck... if you want to reference me as a "statistical expert", feel free to do so!!! heheheheheeee Tom

[boxhitch]

if you want to reference me as a "statistical expert",
Self-professed or ???? You seem to have lots of opinions on BC's systems. Whats the connection ?

[hitch]

I usually put in for almost everything. That way you have a better chance for something. Over the years i've had several tags drawn except that sheep tag, I think Gatehouse got the tag I was going to draw last year.:lol: My father hasn't been drawn for bull moose since they started the program and puts in every year. I just firgure if you put in for everything something has to come up with your name on it.

[MichelD]

There was a very good article in BC Outdoors Hunting and Shooting edition a year or more ago explaining the BC LEH system. Seems to make sense to me. The comparison the author did with other LEH systems made the B.C. LEH program sound pretty good.

[tmarschall]

Boxhitch... I guess it depends on your definition of "expert". In some realms it seems that anyone with an opinion is classified as an expert, in others, 6 or 7 educational degrees with 40 years working experience in a particular field is required for the title. I would say I fall somewhere in the middle, I do have a degree in wildlife science and I have have a strong background in math. I have been involved with the harvesting and management of wildlife resources, from the user level, for over 40 years. Thats my "qualifications" take em for what they may be worth.
As far as the "connection", I have some BC resident friends who I have accompanied on their hunts. Sitting around the campfire at night and listening to their stories has given me some insight as to what they have to deal with. The gun registration was the topic more than once. I still communicate with them on a regular basis.
As a US Army officer for 11 years, I also had the opportunity to see government beaurocracy at work, or not work as the case may be. I have seen first hand here the affect of poor management of game animals. Therefore, I speak my mind for the good of my friends and the sport we all enjoy. I don't profess to really be an "expert" by any means, I just state my opinions, thats all they really are, but not without some background to enhance their credibility.

MichelD.... I read the article about the BC LEH system, and it is a good system, from the collection of harvest data, affect of weather on populations and population dynamics. The only real flaw, and I would consider it a minor flaw, is the statistical possibility that a person may never be drawn for a hunt.

I was going to post this separately, but I will put it here. What they have set up is actually a gambling operation, with the government being the house, and the hunters being the gamblers. If you look closely... it is a true gamble, you put forth money at a "chance" to win. If you loose, all you get is an "enhanced chance" to win. Thats all you can get at any casino, a chance to win. Under the point system, if you loose, your money basically buys you a point if you are not drawn, your money is not "gambled" away. Buy enough points, and you will get your draw, you are gambling nothing, you are making a purchase over several years if it takes that long.

Can you elaborate on what the author pointed out about the other systems that made the BC system look so good? Maybe I am missing something? It just seems that by adding some sort of point system, nothing would change except the odds of a person being drawn. Number of hunters drawn in a given year will still be driven by allowable harvests.

[slyfox]

OK everyone exp for grizz and r elk and dall sheep,bison every other animal is open in bc some were if you consider your self a good hunter you dont need a draw to get an animal just a little luck and some hard work.I for my self consider the draw a bonus hunt and if i dont get a draw i dont cry and judge the system.I just start planning to hunt open animals in the province,Mule,blacktail,whitetail deer,black bear,goats,3 kind of sheep,elk,moose to many animals to name in this province.Like i side if you consider your self a good hunter you dont need a draw its a bonus.

[bigwhiteys]

Slyfox,

Good Post. Thats why I still have yet to enter the draw. I have always found ample opportunity with the open season.

However the special Sheep and Elk draw is far to tempting to ignore any longer. I will be investing there this year lol...

Happy Hunting!
Carl

[Phred]

In six years, I've managed to get two doe tags and one moose tag. The moose tag and one of the doe tags were in one year. It's been 5 years since those tags and although it gets frustrating, I'll keep taking my chance.
My neighbor got two bison tags in two years....lucky guy.