Jeff Werner on Moose

[boxhitch]

https://video.unbc.ca/media/The+abundance+of+scarcityA+landscape+change%2C+pro tein+limitation%2C+and+moose+population+dynamics+i n+north-central+BC.+Dr.+Jeff+Werner%2C+BC+Ministry+of+Fore sts%2C+Lands%2C+Natural+Resource+Operations%2C+and +Rural+Development+-+October+18+2019/0_pbu2wpdw/19801?fbclid=IwAR2tr5DTq1dnyRQRfT6ABACXX-a2eDsBA1Tinx244tzOT61syu0pbaLdFtQ

(https://video.unbc.ca/media/The+abundance+of+scarcityA+landscape+change%2C+pro tein+limitation%2C+and+moose+population+dynamics+i n+north-central+BC.+Dr.+Jeff+Werner%2C+BC+Ministry+of+Fore sts%2C+Lands%2C+Natural+Resource+Operations%2C+and +Rural+Development+-+October+18+2019/0_pbu2wpdw/19801?fbclid=IwAR2tr5DTq1dnyRQRfT6ABACXX-a2eDsBA1Tinx244tzOT61syu0pbaLdFtQ)The abundance of scarcity: landscape change, protein limitation, and moose population dynamics in north-central BC. Dr. Jeff Werner, BC Ministry of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations, and Rural Development - October 18 2019
(https://video.unbc.ca/media/The+abundance+of+scarcityA+landscape+change%2C+pro tein+limitation%2C+and+moose+population+dynamics+i n+north-central+BC.+Dr.+Jeff+Werner%2C+BC+Ministry+of+Fore sts%2C+Lands%2C+Natural+Resource+Operations%2C+and +Rural+Development+-+October+18+2019/0_pbu2wpdw/19801?fbclid=IwAR2tr5DTq1dnyRQRfT6ABACXX-a2eDsBA1Tinx244tzOT61syu0pbaLdFtQ)

[boxhitch]

21% of collared moose mortality attributed to acute starvation ...........huh

[ydouask]

Very interesting to see that various assumptions of the nutritional values of different species, as well as the seasonal values, and growth locations are being studied in a scientific way. Human industrial activity is a fact of life in B.C. , but perhaps carrying out that activity at something less than 100% fibre recovery could have enormous benefit to Moose populations. The focus on the harvest of one species at the expense of other resources in the Province of B.C. is in need of change. The negative effect of enormous ungulate unfriendly cut-blocks is clear. Is there a column on the bean counter's ledger for wildlife... not yet !

[huntingfamily]

This report says 16% starvation. See pie chart on page 13.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ikGisr2yY7CBIaWu4nHW2xjO_S5M6SfS/view?usp=drivesdk

[boxhitch]

Cut blocks are supposed to be the tender vittle buffet for ungulates
Someone doesn't have their science on straight

[Rob Chipman]

Well, that was an excellent find. Thanks Boxhitch.

[eric]

Cut blocks are supposed to be the tender vittle buffet for ungulates
Someone doesn't have their science on straight

Unless the cut blocks are sprayed to stop the good vittles from growing......

[Dannybuoy]

Cut blocks are supposed to be the tender vittle buffet for ungulates
Someone doesn't have their science on straight
I would think it depends on the agenda of those using " science "

[Walking Buffalo]

Cut blocks are supposed to be the tender vittle buffet for ungulates
Someone doesn't have their science on straight

Why?
Who?


I suggest Jeff spends some more time learning from the 'shrooms.
He has some great insight, but needs to connect these threads.

I hope those that watch this realize how narrow and infantile (young) the research is.
Jeff acknowledges that this is just the beginning of trying to understand what is going on.

My concern is that developing the science can be much too slow and expensive to react in time when biological concerns arise.
This could be another case where we won't know what went wrong until it is much too late to do anything about it.

[Rob Chipman]

"developing the science can be much too slow and expensive to react in time"

Good observation. Science is slow, and it really only discovers little bits of information that need to be sewn together over time, and subjected to all the sorts of critiques that other scientists can throw at the emerging conclusions.

I'd re-frame the "expensive" a bit. Let's suspend criticism of Dr. Werner for a second and just pretend that all his work about tannins reducing digestible proteins is 100% on point, and that it does result in moose starving with full bellies. That's a huge loss, and you could calculate that into a dollar figure.

Who's incurring that loss? It doesn't turn up on forest company balance sheets, or government balance sheets either.

Both those entities deal in really, really big numbers.


Dr. Werner, on the other hand, indicates that analyzing the results of his turd burgling is *really expensive*. It probably isn't very expensive at all in the big scheme of things. I'm obviously speculating, but what's it cost to analyze a bunch of moose turds, (or do CWD testing on some deer heads) compared to throwing a bridge over a creek and punching in a road to get some timber? Or (dare I say it) what's it cost to analyze moose turns compared to trying to get a seat on the UN Security Council?

"Someone doesn't have their science on straight"

I think that's a common problem, but one of the important values of science is (and Dr. Werner indicated this) is that it has to potential to self-correct in the wide open because it's impartial and honest. Anyone watching the information we get on Covid (by no means impartial or honest) has got to see the value in more honesty and impartiality.


I'd be remiss in not acknowledging how great it is that UNBC makes these lectures available for knuckleheads like us. Very good stuff.

[Cordillera]

This study is one of a bunch that collectively make up a “big science” investigation into moose declines over almost eight years now. The first theories were that wolves were killing too many moose. So they collared moose and studied mortality and discovered that wasn’t it. Then there was the theory that it was unliscenced harvest. Hmm, it took a lot of effort to track populations since moose don’t report why they die,,,but that wasn’t it either. What was really cool was when they found a new type of collar that let them collar calf moose. Until recently you couldn’t do that as the collars would either kill them as they grew, or they would fall off if they were too loose. Anyway this lets them find out that calves that were surviving until they did surveys in March (you need to survey when snow is on the ground) were dying in April. And now when a calf dies they can go to its body and find out that a bunch are dying of starvation...with lots of “food” in the area, and full bellies. Holy crap. Why might they be starving when there is piles of “good” willow and we all “know” more willow equals more moose. So they start looking at nutrition.

I don’t think they actually “know” what has caused declines yet, but they do “know” a lot more about what wasn’t the cause and maybe they will get closer.

But the overall program deserves a lot of thanks for finally doing some level of justice to the complexity of ecosystem and moose population dynamics.

[boxhitch]

Will be interesting to see if ideas change as to what is proper feed and habitat. May need to plant proper willow

"..........one of the important values of science is (and Dr. Werner indicated this) is that it has to potential to self-correct in the wide open because it's impartial and honest......"
".......but they do “know” a lot more about what wasn’t the cause and maybe they will get closer......."

Yet there are doubters that never believe in science

[Downwindtracker2]

Thanks Boxhitch. It Is interesting. Who knew the effect of sunlight on tannin production . But it does male sense from a plants point of view.

[Moose63]

Produce genetically modified willows that are tannin resistant???

Everything in our diet is going GMO why not moose?

[Walking Buffalo]

This study is one of a bunch that collectively make up a “big science” investigation into moose declines over almost eight years now. The first theories were that wolves were killing too many moose. So they collared moose and studied mortality and discovered that wasn’t it. Then there was the theory that it was unliscenced harvest. Hmm, it took a lot of effort to track populations since moose don’t report why they die,,,but that wasn’t it either. What was really cool was when they found a new type of collar that let them collar calf moose. Until recently you couldn’t do that as the collars would either kill them as they grew, or they would fall off if they were too loose. Anyway this lets them find out that calves that were surviving until they did surveys in March (you need to survey when snow is on the ground) were dying in April. And now when a calf dies they can go to its body and find out that a bunch are dying of starvation...with lots of “food” in the area, and full bellies. Holy crap. Why might they be starving when there is piles of “good” willow and we all “know” more willow equals more moose. So they start looking at nutrition.

I don’t think they actually “know” what has caused declines yet, but they do “know” a lot more about what wasn’t the cause and maybe they will get closer.

But the overall program deserves a lot of thanks for finally doing some level of justice to the complexity of ecosystem and moose population dynamics.


I see problems with this starvation analysis...

We learned a long time ago that ungulates under stress from predation suffer in more ways than just direct mortality.

We learned a long ago that the mere presence of wolves increases metabolic rates in prey.
Of course unsuccessful chases by wolves depletes reserves in ungulates...
Wolves can force moose to inhabit and feed in areas of lower quality food...

And we could go on.

I suspect that the wolf component of the moose starvation revelation has been greatly under-valued.