Good start to winter for ungulates..?

[dapesche]

High snow levels.
Green in the valleys
Depressed ungulates numbers.
Good growing season through spring summer.

Hopefully we see some top level survival rates.

I'm new to hunting so am I too optimistic? Can we expect a population bounce back with the warmer start to winter down here in the koots?

[.264winmag]

Depends who you talk to, few different theories on the subject. One is milder winters can increase predation as it's easier for them to hunt, not battling through snow. Cold winters with good snow accumulation and wolves don't do so well wading through snow above their head.
I can see the milder start thus far a plus, ground is not yet frozen in my area with plenty of grub around still. Worst case scenario is a big snow dump followed by Pineapple Express finished with cold snap. Dogs do well on frozen snow...

[Bugle M In]

From what I recall over the years, winter and winter survival/or deaths seem to occur:

When the game has not moved down to their normal winter range, and the snow suddenly comes down quick and hard for extended times.
If the snow falls little by little accumulating slowly over days, the game seem to get that as the cue to move down.
The worst season were the ones where we have freezing rain etc first, thus putting a sheet of ice down on top of the feed, then followed by lots of snow.

Being down in the LM, I never get to see what occurs in other parts of the province.
I hunted Kammy a few times in the past month, and snow levels are really low.
(Way lower then how it used to be).
But its areas that have high mountain ranges, like say in Princeton, or the Kettle Valley, or the EK, where game can often get trapped overnight, and where I do recall some big "die offs" over the years.

Hoping it will be an good winter as I don't think we need that problem on top of all the other issues right now.

[Bugle M In]

Depends who you talk to, few different theories on the subject. One is milder winters can increase predation as it's easier for them to hunt, not battling through snow. Cold winters with good snow accumulation and wolves don't do so well wading through snow above their head.
I can see the milder start thus far a plus, ground is not yet frozen in my area with plenty of grub around still. Worst case scenario is a big snow dump followed by Pineapple Express finished with cold snap. Dogs do well on frozen snow...

I think in areas where the temp can change daily, say -10 one day then +1 a couple days later allows for the snow to warm up, and then becomes "compacted" (instead of staying fluffy, it gets pushed down from its own weight) is always
an area where wolves succeed in.
Not sure if there are many areas where the snow stays fluffy all winter long.
I guess what I am saying is, I doubt there is an area where wolves can operate in.
The higher the snow, the better they do, imo, cause eventually the surface of the snow does get a crust.
Something they can walk on top of while the ungulates fall thru.

[Pemby_mess]

Depends who you talk to, few different theories on the subject. One is milder winters can increase predation as it's easier for them to hunt, not battling through snow. Cold winters with good snow accumulation and wolves don't do so well wading through snow above their head.
I can see the milder start thus far a plus, ground is not yet frozen in my area with plenty of grub around still. Worst case scenario is a big snow dump followed by Pineapple Express finished with cold snap. Dogs do well on frozen snow...

long periods of "breakable crust" are lethal to ungulate populations. Wolves can walk and run across the surface like tarmac, while deer and such break through, get tripped up and bogged down like its quicksand. Rare are conditions like these present at all elevations, on all cardinal aspects, in all regions. Lots of melt freeze will do it though.

in the winter of 2014-2015, we had quite a bit of "pineapple". But the rain penetrated deeply causing the snowpack to remain completely "locked up"; meaning both wolves and ungulate could ride on top. Large temperature swings from high to low are what would effect the snowpack most negatively where it concerns ungulate survival.

[boxhitch]

Sounds plausible B but I haven't seen any hard info correlating weather events and deer pops, I doubt these things are monitored.
With the large die-off of '96 folks were reporting finding groups of dead deer iirc, haven't heard of such a thing again.

This last winter had snow pack at 150% of normal in many parts of BC, anyone hear word about findings of an inordinate number of dead?

[Pemby_mess]

I think in areas where the temp can change daily, say -10 one day then +1 a couple days later allows for the snow to warm up, and then becomes "compacted" (instead of staying fluffy, it gets pushed down from its own weight) is always
an area where wolves succeed in.
Not sure if there are many areas where the snow stays fluffy all winter long.
I guess what I am saying is, I doubt there is an area where wolves can operate in.
The higher the snow, the better they do, imo, cause eventually the surface of the snow does get a crust.
Something they can walk on top of while the ungulates fall thru.

constant temps slightly below zero are what create consolidation in the snow pack or "settlement". That is probably a neutral condition for ungulates.

Rapid settlement will occur with air temps slightly above zero, compacting the snow enough for both species to stay on top.

Sustained low temps, with clear open skies is negative for settlement. What happens here is the snow within the underlying layers goes through a crystal metamorphosis called "faceting". It turns to "sugar".

In a heavily faceted snow pack, wolves can run on top, but ungulates will get tripped up around obstacles like sapling trees and rocks that have advanced the faceting process around them.

Crusts within the snowpack will also create facets (sugary weak snow crystals) on either side of it. If the crust is fully supportive because of a good settlement process, the deer will survive. If the crust has been exposed to cold temps, it will partially break down, and give the wolves an advantage lethal to ungulates.

[338win mag]

An interesting question, I think Moose do well with lots of snow because they can escape preds better, but deer on the other hand I have noticed will stay up high in surprisingly deep snow if it gets hard and crunchy down below, which they hate because it leaves them raw around their legs causing an issue for them.
It could be a combination of extreme cold and deep snow that is the worst scenario for deer. I would really like to know more about this.

[.264winmag]

I think in areas where the temp can change daily, say -10 one day then +1 a couple days later allows for the snow to warm up, and then becomes "compacted" (instead of staying fluffy, it gets pushed down from its own weight) is always
an area where wolves succeed in.
Not sure if there are many areas where the snow stays fluffy all winter long.
I guess what I am saying is, I doubt there is an area where wolves can operate in.
The higher the snow, the better they do, imo, cause eventually the surface of the snow does get a crust.
Something they can walk on top of while the ungulates fall thru.

I assume you mean 'I doubt there is an area where wolves CAN'T operate in'?
I hear what you're saying, but also spent a pile of time around the monashees, selkirk and purcells back in my backcountry snowboarding days. Can't remember many instances I could operate without snowshoes, meaning a canine would likely have the same issue. All my buddies that still have the powder bug now rock touring skis or split boards, similar experiences snow wise.

Another good example would be my favourite Stone Sheep area. Talked to a fellow involved in a 5 year sheep study in that area. They found winter predation was much less on the higher snowfall winters. The sheep concentrate the northern wind swept grass slopes, snow accumulation from valley bottom up prevents dogs from reaching them. Little bit different scenario but it makes some sense.

I know any area in then Selkirks where the moose thrive up high in 10ft+ snow pack. They live on alder bark all
winter safe from the dogs. I was shocked when I stumbled on them years ago snowshoeing around slide paths with a spring Grizz tag.

I know one would think that as the temp warms up and snow levels settle it would be a cakewalk for dogs. I find unless it actually rains then freezes right after it's not so much the case. Heavy settled snow can actually dry out quite easily following a cold snap, without that detrimental crust forming.

Many variables, hard to say for certain.

[Pemby_mess]

Sounds plausible B but I haven't seen any hard info correlating weather events and deer pops, I doubt these things are monitored.
With the large die-off of '96 folks were reporting finding groups of dead deer iirc, haven't heard of such a thing again.

This last winter had snow pack at 150% of normal in many parts of BC, anyone hear word about findings of an inordinate number of dead?


. I would really like to know more about this.

There is a surprising amount of snow science available. I'm not sure how much wildlife bios use in forecasting mortality, but the two disciplines that I know do a lot of work with snowpack variables are hydrologists and avalanche forecasters. From the science available in those fields, we can then make inferences from the data and transfer them over to knowledge about how wildlife interact with those variables. It wouldn't surprise me at all if wildlife bios were using those same inferences.

[Pemby_mess]

I assume you mean 'I doubt there is an area where wolves CAN'T operate in'?
I hear what you're saying, but also spent a pile of time around the monashees, selkirk and purcells back in my backcountry snowboarding days. Can't remember many instances I could operate without snowshoes, meaning a canine would likely have the same issue. All my buddies that still have the powder bug now rock touring skis or split boards, similar experiences snow wise.

Another good example would be my favourite Stone Sheep area. Talked to a fellow involved in a 5 year sheep study in that area. They found winter predation was much less on the higher snowfall winters. The sheep concentrate the northern wind swept grass slopes, snow accumulation from valley bottom up prevents dogs from reaching them. Little bit different scenario but it makes some sense.

I know any area in then Selkirks where the moose thrive up high in 10ft+ snow pack. They live on alder bark all
winter safe from the dogs. I was shocked when I stumbled on them years ago snowshoeing around slide paths with a spring Grizz tag.

I know one would think that as the temp warms up and snow levels settle it would be a cakewalk for dogs. I find unless it actually rains then freezes right after it's not so much the case. Heavy settled snow can actually dry out quite easily following a cold snap, without that detrimental crust forming.

Many variables, hard to say for certain.

As a general rule in this part of the world:

Northern mountain slopes are considered "lee" to the wind, and therefore accumulate deeper snowpacks due to wind action. Southerly "aspects" are "wind swept" by the prevailing winds. More feed will typically be available year round on southerly aspects.

avalanche paths are more numerous on south facing slopes, and larger, but run less frequently on the North sides.

Deeper snowpacks will consolidate and settle to a greater degree (and more quickly after additional snowfalls) than shallow snowpacks with all else equal. Total depth of snowpack has little to do with the surface character and "depth of penetration", but a deeper snowpack being better consolidated usually has less foot penetration absent any crusts on the south sides.

crusts form as a consequence of liquid precipitation, sun affect, temperature spikes, and wind scouring. Crusts break down from prolonged cold temps like you mention.

[Pemby_mess]

The winter weather is generally going to exert significant variance on the snowpack and feed availability according to aspect, elevation, and region. This is why having diverse habitat availability and interconnectivity is so important to ungulate survival.

We'll often see breakable crust conditions within narrow elevation bands, not present above and below. If ungulates can move off of the aspect and elevation where they occur, they will prove more resilient to predation. If there are habitat features that keep them confined, or the condition is more widespread than is typical, that population will be in trouble.

one of the facts about the snowpack that has recently come to light where it concerns ungulates is winter time road use. In lots of mountainous regions ungulates will move to where both the terrain and the snowpack protect them from predation based on the variance in conditions at the time. When snow machines compact snow, it gives wolves and other predators express access into all regions, elevations, and aspects of the mountains; meaning the ability of snowpack conditions and terrain features to protect from predation is reduced.

[Bugle M In]

All good points.
The example I was giving was like the day up in the EK.
It snowed about 12", but it was all real Fluffy stuff, and if you had ten feet of that, then yes, wolves cant operate in that, they fall thru as well.
But a day later, it had warmed up, and the weight of the snow itself had caused it to go from 12" to more like 4".
If you get that type of "Compacting" and repeated days like that, even if you have 10 feet of it, the wolves can
operate.

The bigger concern for ungulates is freezing rain, making it impossible for them to get to the feed.
That's why you will see that they go after the bark so much those years, cause they are starving (not talking moose here).

So, frozen Ice Ground due to rain which freezes and then throw a whole bunch of snow on top of that, in a real quick time line is definitely a recipe for disaster.

I think I also recall that back then, the game just had a hard time trying to find "routes" out of there as well.
Things sure are getting any easier for Ungulates, that's for sure.

[boxhitch]

Then there is the mid and high elev logging going on, eating up former winter ranges. Tough for critters to adapt in times of rapid change
Deer need big trees in snow zones

[.264winmag]

Not my info, just relaying the studies' findings. In case of the sheep there is less snow accumulation on the upper portion of the northern aspects because of the wind and lack of sun affecting snowpack. Below the accumulation is higher helping keep preds out. The southern aspects in the area get cooked off in the late summer and fall, leaving the north the place to be for good wintering grub. And where all the netting/collaring went on throughout winter. Perhaps an anomolly this area.

Moose are absolutely on the southern slide paths.

[dapesche]

Sounds plausible B but I haven't seen any hard info correlating weather events and deer pops, I doubt these things are monitored.
With the large die-off of '96 folks were reporting finding groups of dead deer iirc, haven't heard of such a thing again.

This last winter had snow pack at 150% of normal in many parts of BC, anyone hear word about findings of an inordinate number of dead?

Based on podcasts, the last couple years of winters just south of the border led to a tremendous amount of winterkill. I'm assuming we were no different. They just seem to be able to keep better track due to funding.

[Pemby_mess]

All good points.
The example I was giving was like the day up in the EK.
It snowed about 12", but it was all real Fluffy stuff, and if you had ten feet of that, then yes, wolves cant operate in that, they fall thru as well.
But a day later, it had warmed up, and the weight of the snow itself had caused it to go from 12" to more like 4".
If you get that type of "Compacting" and repeated days like that, even if you have 10 feet of it, the wolves can
operate.

The bigger concern for ungulates is freezing rain, making it impossible for them to get to the feed.
That's why you will see that they go after the bark so much those years, cause they are starving (not talking moose here).

So, frozen Ice Ground due to rain which freezes and then throw a whole bunch of snow on top of that, in a real quick time line is definitely a recipe for disaster.

I think I also recall that back then, the game just had a hard time trying to find "routes" out of there as well.
Things sure are getting any easier for Ungulates, that's for sure.

the rate of consolidation (settlement) or "compaction" is determined by the temperature profile of the snowpack. In a deep snowpack with a relatively smooth, or "shallow" temperature gradient; settlement will be rapid and the snowpack "firms up" quickly. Think coastal snowpack here. You can have more than 50 feet of accumulation in some areas, but be able to walk on it with no snowshoes. In these conditions, both predator and prey can move through the snow fairly naturally.

In a snowpack with a "steeper" temperature gradient, light fluffy snow will stay light and fluffy. What's more, previously settled snow within the historical snowpack will "unconsolidate". In other words, it will undergo faceting and become weak and unsupportive leading to deeper hoof and paw penetration.

temperature gradients are often not consistent throughout the snowpack; nor throughout time and space. You'll have layers within the snowpack that are consolidated, and other layers that were formulated in cold temps that remain cold and dry once buried. These layers will often continue to weaken when the weather is not promoting settlement - like lots of successive cold clear nights.

A backcountry skier's worst nightmare, and also that of deer; is something called an "upside-down snowpack". A weak, unsupportive crust is one example of this, but it can also occur from a storm that simply warms up a few degrees from cold to not so cold in it's duration. Here you'll get a firm "storm slab" overlying weak punchy layers that don't carry any significant weight. If this condition persists due to steep snowpack temperature gradients, wolves can travel 40-100km in a day over the surface, whereas deer might be luck to gain 5k in an attempt to adapt and evade. so they'll be run down.

Tough travel conditions also mean more energy expended in the perennial search for food and safety. So freezing rain is not necessary to render food supplies inadequate, although neither would something like that help. There are much more common winter weather phenomena that would cause deer to exhaust their food supplies. Anything that throughs their energy balance out will do it.

Any rain falling on snow in the mountains typically freezes, unless the entire season's snowpack has transitioned isothermal - which is another snowpack phenomena lethal to ungulates

[Pemby_mess]

Not my info, just relaying the studies' findings. In case of the sheep there is less snow accumulation on the upper portion of the northern aspects because of the wind and lack of sun affecting snowpack. Below the accumulation is higher helping keep preds out. The southern aspects in the area get cooked off in the late summer and fall, leaving the north the place to be for good wintering grub. And where all the netting/collaring went on throughout winter. Perhaps an anomolly this area.

Moose are absolutely on the southern slide paths.

well, as a "rule of thumb" it doesn't really make sense, because high elevation North slopes aren't typically subject to wind scour by prevailing winds. You'll see wind scouring on southern aspects, even a complete absence of snow in the windiest areas. Wind-loading is occurring on northerly slopes - think heavy glaciation; a consequence of nearly constant wind loading throughout the millennia.

It does make sense that the best vegetation for feed be present on Northerly aspects due to Southern aspects being "baked off" over the summer.

One thing that would run counter to the rule of thumb, is sustained "Northern outflow" conditions. This is when the prevailing winds reverse due to an "outflow" event of Arctic high pressure. This will will scour the previously wind loaded north aspects, throwing all the snow load onto the previously scoured South aspects. Some winters are characterized by more outflow events than others. Mountain ranges at higher latitudes have more occurrences of these events than in regions at lower latitudes.

[.264winmag]

Just picture the upper portion of the northern aspects, hardly any accumulation. It piles up not far below. If you seen this spot on a map it would make more sense I think. It's about as far NE as it gets for stones. Apparently not the only location that has these tendencies for sheep.

[Pemby_mess]

Just picture the upper portion of the northern aspects, hardly any accumulation. It piles up not far below. If you seen this spot on a map it would make more sense I think. It's about as far NE as it gets for stones. Apparently not the only location that has these tendencies for sheep.

yeah, something is not making sense. If i'm standing at the top of an East-West running ridge, where the South aspect is on my left hand side, and the North on my right hand; it's not uncommon to have bare rock all the way down to the tree line on the South side, but have 5 meters or more of consolidated snow immediately on the North side of the ridge. North side is lee every where in the Northern hemisphere - and is where the snow being carried by the wind drops out and accumulates. One alpine terrain feature that will sometimes scour on North sides, are moraines. Just cause they are steep and stick out of the surrounding snow pack.

in fact, the higher you go in elevation, the more this effect will intensify. The old growth forests on both south and north sides will have similar depth of snowpack; as you go up to tree line, Southerly aspects start showing more wind affect; and as you get up high in the alpine, the wind affect on snow will be complete: the wind will typically carry all the snow on the windward South side, and dump it onto the North. You can be on a peak with 100k winds and by the time you drop 10 meters down onto the sheltered North side, you might not feel a lick.

in addition, the South alpine side is exposed to sun. So while the sun doesn't so much melt the snow off of the peaks, it does contribute to something called "sublimation", which is essentially what happens when snow evaporates. That won't occur at the same rate on a North aspect where the snow remains unaffected by sun year round.

[Pemby_mess]

Just picture the upper portion of the northern aspects, hardly any accumulation. It piles up not far below. If you seen this spot on a map it would make more sense I think. It's about as far NE as it gets for stones. Apparently not the only location that has these tendencies for sheep.

There might be a regional phenomena there. Or the study was being carried out during repeated outflow events. Which actually kind of makes sense if it was done from the air.

[.264winmag]

Don't know what to tell you, other than these sheep make a living there all winter. It's north facing. Two ridges in a row, both bowl type ridges all northerly aspect. This isn't a hunch, its fact. Fella spent 5 years straight netting and collaring them in the exact same spots.

[Pemby_mess]

Don't know what to tell you, other than these sheep make a living there all winter. It's north facing. Two ridges in a row, both bowl type ridges all northerly aspect. This isn't a hunch, its fact. Fella spent 5 years straight netting and collaring them in the exact same spots.

I'm not disputing the observations. However the "why"s of the observations seem like they may be miscommunicated a tad.

when you say "bowl type" ridge, i'm thinking a Northern alpine cirque formed by glacial moraines. So while the snow on the moraines themselves may be wind scoured and shallow - the "bowls" just beside them will be deep and loaded. The reason the stone sheep hang out there is likely due more to the availability of food than depth of snowpack. Likely predator protection has something to do with it too: where they can hang out at tree line munching and run up the wind scoured moraines as an escape route when confronted by wolves.

This until, the area becomes popular with large numbers of sleds packing out the deep snow for the wolves to run along.

[.264winmag]

Something like that. No trees anywhere nearby, No vehicles can get there and sleds not allowed. If the snowpack were too deep they'd not be able to get at the food, they can always get grub there.

[Pemby_mess]

Don't know what to tell you, other than these sheep make a living there all winter. It's north facing. Two ridges in a row, both bowl type ridges all northerly aspect. This isn't a hunch, its fact. Fella spent 5 years straight netting and collaring them in the exact same spots.

actually, what you've said here clarifies it a lot. The animals are utilizing the eccentricities of the micro terrain for both food and safety. Confusion lay where erroneous rules of thumb were being used to describe macro phenomena. Thanks for persisting and making your point through a mental picture.

[Pemby_mess]

Something like that. No vehicles allowed in the area.

yeah, unfortunately when vehicles come in, it upsets that little niche they're using and forces them out into other areas where they're more vulnerable.

[Salty]

Good start to winter for ungulates? Yes. Because the most important thing of all happened, the fall rains came to flush out another crop of feed after the summer drought. This will have them going in to winter well fed and leaves something to paw for which is the biggest concern for winter mortality for mule deer at least, as was shown from the excellent study done state side that was posted here last year. I want to say Montana? Can't remember right now..

[horshur]

Give the link a read. It is not about deer but it diagrams population cycles. There are a few profound statements to ponder some that even contradict the conclusions. It is a ten minute read.


https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/51/1/25/251849 (https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/51/1/25/251849)

[horshur]

Sunspot activity correlation.

http://discovermagazine.com/1993/jun/pacemakeroftheha236 (http://discovermagazine.com/1993/jun/pacemakeroftheha236)

[.264winmag]

Good start to winter for ungulates? Yes. Because the most important thing of all happened, the fall rains came to flush out another crop of feed after the summer drought. This will have them going in to winter well fed and leaves something to paw for which is the biggest concern for winter mortality for mule deer at least, as was shown from the excellent study done state side that was posted here last year. I want to say Montana? Can't remember right now..

This too. I noticed green grass still at 5000' nov.9 in the timber. 2 ft of snow outside the timber ground not yet frozen. Good grub late into the year fer sure.

[dapesche]

I'm seeing a lot of fawns and calves on my trail cams. A mule deer doe with a fawn and a WT doe with two fawns. Also have two twin spikes from last years crop and then two other spikes that were likely born in 2017. There is also a nice 5 point hanging out with the main herd which makes me believe he's relatively young too. There is black bear boar who is a big bugger. He is on my to do list for September.


It's great to see a solid amount of fawn/calves and 1/2 year animals making it. Hopefully you are seeing similar results.

[Stillhunting]

Fantastic conditions for ungulates this Summer in the Southern Interior anyway. Vegetation is still lush and water everywhere. Should be some nice bucks around in the Fall in areas where wolves aren't too thick.

[wideopenthrottle]

Give the link a read. It is not about deer but it diagrams population cycles. There are a few profound statements to ponder some that even contradict the conclusions. It is a ten minute read.

all good stuff thanks for that......some of that information should be known to anyone with any experience in animal population cycles. the ideas of pred/prey balance being a static situation are well demonstrated to be a fallacy. I was also interested to read this bit

For mammalian predators in winter, we used snow tracking to monitor density changes and kill rates of lynx and coyotes. All hare predators showed strong numerical changes that lagged behind the hare cycle 1–2 years (Boutin et al. 1995). In addition, both lynx and coyotes killed more hares per day in the peak and decline phases than during the increase. These kill rates were well above previous estimates and well in excess of energy demands. Surplus killing seems to be a characteristic feature of these predators

[dapesche]

Uploaded some trail cam footage to YouTube. Have never uploaded this sort of thing so I wouldn't mind if someone tried the link and let me know that it worked...Thank you.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuGBDzhhr5EJnqvJrD7dJWQ?view_as=public

[wideopenthrottle]

worked for me....love those spotty critters.....is mommas left rear foot injured?

[dapesche]

worked for me....love those spotty critters.....is mommas left rear foot injured?

Great. Thank you.

Yes. I think she is favouring it.

The bear in the first video also had a big limp about a month ago. In the video I posted she is the colour phased bear. In that video you can see the big boar in the forest top left of the screen. He is hot on her tail.
Wondering if he hurt her while mounting her or trying to get her to 'give it up'.