Maybe there really is something wrong with the LEH system

[Wagonmaster]

So, over the years many suggestions have appeared on this site that the LEH system is "rigged" or screwed up in some way. Some people apply for years and never get drawn while others are repeat winners with tags in back to back years. I always believed that it was computer driven and that there was no reason for inequities to occur. However, a recent post indicated that this year, a hunter received an LEH authorization for moose with his second choice for Oct.1-14 in region 5-02C. That should be impossible. Second choice success is only possible if there are unfilled authorizations available after all applications for that hunt have been run through the draw process. 5-02C has odds of 12.5:1 (will vary slightly from year to year) which means there are twelve times as many applicants as authorizations available. It is impossible for one to be available for a second choice. This aberration, or perhaps more accurately, this error, needs to be brought to the attention of those in charge of the LEH system for an explanation.

[twoSevenO]

Orrrr the whole thing was just a lie to stir the pot as many like to do?

[boxhitch]

Oooorrrr, he mixed the hunt numbers as to which was first choice or second choice
Ask me how I know this can happen..........

[Buckmeister]

It is computer driven. There is a PDF file that gives a very good description of how the draw is done. Here is a link to the PDF.
http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/fw/wildlife/hunting/resident/docs/leh_system.pdf

[monasheemountainman]

I noticed that too but didn't say anything. I don't think he won his second I think he made a mistake

[Buckmeister]

So in the scenario you describe, it is possible to get assigned a second choice hunt, although I believe it to be rare. For instance, if all or most people applying for a 5-02C hunt in early Oct only listed it as their 2nd choice, then of course it would be available when the computer runs through for the 2nd choice hunts.

[Whonnock Boy]

Interesting, and the only logical..... hang on. I think it's safe to say that odds are formulated from first choice applications only. Only way to find this out is, what were the odds of this years hunt in 5-02C?
So in the scenario you describe, it is possible to get assigned a second choice hunt, although I believe it to be rare. For instance, if all or most people applying for a 5-02C hunt in early Oct only listed it as their 2nd choice, then of course it would be available when the computer runs through for the 2nd choice hunts.

[hunter1947]

Its been wrong forever can be fixed to be more fair to others that never get picked what management needs to do is pull up their skirts and the pants sharpen the pencils and some work on the system and if its revenue that is stopping this from happening we could donate to there needs to make this happen I know I would donate some money for this to happen..

[tigrr]

A young lady from Langley got a moose draw 3 years in a row. I've been waiting 6 years now for one.

[Jelvis]

Only way you can do it fairly tho, if you make it illegal to apply if you won last year this year, that wood be unfair and not done, it was thought of tho. Maybe on a special sheep draw eetc.
-- The LEH system ain't perfect but nothing is perfect, but it is a well run system in my own opinion from seeing it dee vel up, over the decades in BC
BC has a good reputation for wild life management by the Ministry, it never gave up and still trying.
I think eventually leh will be thee main part of hunting anything other than general open deer seasons.
Jel -- The best to our BC Wildlife Ministry in 2017 and beyond in animal management --

[Asco]

Hey Jelly

I love your posts and this is not a personal attack against you, but British Columbia does not have a good reputation for wildlife management. It's pretty terrible stacked up against any of that Western states or even Alberta. Wildlife management in British Columbia is pretty pitiful. We spend pennies where they spend dollars on scientific research population control and habitat.

thank you the BCWF Townhall presentation for teaching me that.

[Wild one]

BCs wildlife/hunter management is broken enough said

[KodiakHntr]

One thing that a lot of folks forget, is that it is a fresh run, every. single. year.

Doesn't matter that you didn't get a draw last year. Or the year before. Everyone has the same odds each year, as everyone else.

As to some people winning the same draws more than once, oh well. They had the same odds as you did. There are multiple cases in the US of people winning the Powerball Lottery more than once... How is that fair?!?!?! Millions of people have never won the Powerball! They should change the system!

Some people have been struck by lightning multiple times as well. Bet they wish somebody would change the system....




Point being, some people are just flat out lucky (or unlucky as the case may be). I know a guy who for years won pretty near everything that he ever put in a ticket for, be it fishing derbies, to scratch tickets, to office draws. Some people are just lucky.

Right now, the way the system is, everyone has the same chances every year to win a draw they want.

[wideopenthrottle]

One thing that a lot of folks forget, is that it is a fresh run, every. single. year.

Doesn't matter that you didn't get a draw last year. Or the year before. Everyone has the same odds each year, as everyone else.

As to some people winning the same draws more than once, oh well. They had the same odds as you did. There are multiple cases in the US of people winning the Powerball Lottery more than once... How is that fair?!?!?! Millions of people have never won the Powerball! They should change the system!

Some people have been struck by lightning multiple times as well. Bet they wish somebody would change the system....




Point being, some people are just flat out lucky (or unlucky as the case may be). I know a guy who for years won pretty near everything that he ever put in a ticket for, be it fishing derbies, to scratch tickets, to office draws. Some people are just lucky.

Right now, the way the system is, everyone has the same chances every year to win a draw they want.

obviously with the exception of a few species where you get reduced odds after being drawn

[Amphibious]

People that get upset about the LEH System have:

A: Poor understanding of Stats
B: Sandy Vaginas
C: All of the above.

[bcfirefly]

My group has been successful 5 out of 6 years for moose... but my odds are 1.5:1 so pretty good :) also a lot of work to get where we hunt and we know the area well. We do study the odds for where we would be willing to hunt if successful.
Bison on the other hand ... 0 for 10 yrs and going

[MB_Boy]

A young lady from Langley got a moose draw 3 years in a row. I've been waiting 6 years now for one.


One thing that a lot of folks forget, is that it is a fresh run, every. single. year.

As to some people winning the same draws more than once, oh well. They had the same odds as you did. There are multiple cases in the US of people winning the Powerball Lottery more than once... How is that fair?!?!?! Millions of people have never won the Powerball! They should change the system!

The late Gary Troll of Horseshoe Bay's Troll's Fish and Chips won the lottery twice in not much more than a year; $25,000 and close to $14M...and I am yet to win much more than $10 or a free play. Granted his wins are kinda like a Kamloops Sheep Draw and a flat top draw....but he still managed 2 wins whilst MANY go without. As Amphib and Kodiak said....it's fresh odds every time just like if you play 649 or Lotto Max.

[Wagonmaster]

I am not upset about the system and do, in fact, understand it clearly. The computer model is a good one, designed to be fair and help manage B.C.'s wildlife. Whether it does that effectively, or not, is another topic. All I am saying, is that the system is apparently prone to glitches or errors. Computers are not infallible. It is certainly possible for some individuals to obtain moose draws in consecutive years even with the reduced odds component and yes some people seem to be more lucky than others. I have a buddy that has been successful twice for an Island elk. All I'm saying is that it is IMPOSSIBLE for one to be successful for the hunt in question with a second choice. The odds for this hunt were 12.5:1 last year. In 2014/15 they were 10.6:1, 2015/16 14.7:1 and 2016/17 15.3:1. To clarify, if there are 10 authorizations available for a particular moose hunt and their are 100 hunters applying as a first choice, then the odds are 10:1. So, when those 100 are entered into the computer, 10 will get authorizations and 90 will be rejected. THERE ARE NO AUTHORIZATIONS LEFT FOR SECOND CHOICE. The only time a second choice is possible is when the odds are LESS THAN 1:1. So, if someone gets a draw for the hunt in 5-02C as a second choice, then the computer made a mistake. Someone suggested the hunter, in question, must have read his paperwork wrong. That is possible and I have emailed the individual asking that he double check and confirm one way or the other.

[walks with deer]

I like c all of above option..

[Bugle M In]

if the odds are 1 to 1....obviously people get leh tags yearly.
but, I do wonder why some folks do get the draw yearly, with odds say 1 for 4? in the same MU.
isn't there a way that if someone who does get the draw, can not apply for that for say 3 or 4 years...
meaning...if there is only 1 tag, and 4 hunters applying, then maybe the person who won that draw one season has to
sit out 4 seasons after that....(just saying)
If it is 2 to 1 odds, then the lucky hunter has to sit out 2 years after that....???
And if you get the 500 to 1.....your done!
Just my thought on this....
I do know some people who are just F'n lucky....
My friends son has only hunted a couple years now, and got the prized pitt rvr elk tag (1 of 2).
Life isn't fair, so why should the draw be....but I wonder if something more can be done to
"spread around the wealth"....

[Darksith]

So, over the years many suggestions have appeared on this site that the LEH system is "rigged" or screwed up in some way. Some people apply for years and never get drawn while others are repeat winners with tags in back to back years. I always believed that it was computer driven and that there was no reason for inequities to occur. However, a recent post indicated that this year, a hunter received an LEH authorization for moose with his second choice for Oct.1-14 in region 5-02C. That should be impossible. Second choice success is only possible if there are unfilled authorizations available after all applications for that hunt have been run through the draw process. 5-02C has odds of 12.5:1 (will vary slightly from year to year) which means there are twelve times as many applicants as authorizations available. It is impossible for one to be available for a second choice. This aberration, or perhaps more accurately, this error, needs to be brought to the attention of those in charge of the LEH system for an explanation.

Human error is rampant, and I myself am guilty of it this year. I made a mistake, illogically was surprised to see that the odds for my favorite moose hunting MU had dropped by 50%. Only later did I realize that I looked at the wrong line and had entered several groups into the wrong LEH draw. In regards to second choices, because its basically impossible I simply randomly pick a second set of numbers close to the original set. I wonder if there was simply an error by the poster rather than an actual second choice winner.

[Darksith]

BCs wildlife/hunter management is broken enough said

Its not broken per say...simply way under funded.

[Leaseman]

I use to think it was rigged until my two buddies put in for the first rifle elk hunt in Sechelt......yup, they got both tags!!

One in our party of four got more moose draws in 7-11 than the other three combined...IIRC, odds were 5.5-1. He had many back to back bulls......

My luck has run to one moose draw in the last 20 years.....my son who has now hunted 13 years has got one flat top draw.....we do the high odds (elk) but moose and deer are all around 5-6.5:1 odds.


Like the lottery, someone will win, but it wont be me!:lol:

[russm86]

I am not upset about the system and do, in fact, understand it clearly. The computer model is a good one, designed to be fair and help manage B.C.'s wildlife. Whether it does that effectively, or not, is another topic. All I am saying, is that the system is apparently prone to glitches or errors. Computers are not infallible. It is certainly possible for some individuals to obtain moose draws in consecutive years even with the reduced odds component and yes some people seem to be more lucky than others. I have a buddy that has been successful twice for an Island elk. All I'm saying is that it is IMPOSSIBLE for one to be successful for the hunt in question with a second choice. The odds for this hunt were 12.5:1 last year. In 2014/15 they were 10.6:1, 2015/16 14.7:1 and 2016/17 15.3:1. To clarify, if there are 10 authorizations available for a particular moose hunt and their are 100 hunters applying as a first choice, then the odds are 10:1. So, when those 100 are entered into the computer, 10 will get authorizations and 90 will be rejected. THERE ARE NO AUTHORIZATIONS LEFT FOR SECOND CHOICE. The only time a second choice is possible is when the odds are LESS THAN 1:1. So, if someone gets a draw for the hunt in 5-02C as a second choice, then the computer made a mistake. Someone suggested the hunter, in question, must have read his paperwork wrong. That is possible and I have emailed the individual asking that he double check and confirm one way or the other.

Technically this isn't completely IMPOSSIBLE, especially with moose and other species with group hunts... For example, if there is an odd number of tags given out, 11 or 13 or 27 or whatever you get the idea, and everyone who puts in for that area is a group of 3 or more (thus 2 authorizations per group) and no small groups or individuals in 1st choice then it could move to a 2nd choice for that one odd ball left over rather than exceeding or under-utilizing the allowed quota. This could also explain in rare instances why some get draws back to back etc, if they clean up the "left overs" with a small group or and individual only entitled to one tag...

[boxhitch]

BCs wildlife/hunter management is broken enough saidStrongly disagree
The regs in place control the regulated hunting in a way not to be the cause of population declines ........for the most part.
Its not the regulated hunter that has caused serious over-all population declines even though declines have occurred in specific areas on purpose

No body has any specific target population levels as a target, so to say there is failure to achieve a target is wrong. Just because there are hunters whining about 'not like the old days' doesn't mean things are being done wrong.
IF and a BIG IF a mandate ever gets put in place to manage wildlife to a certain number or a certain carrying capacity for habitat, then actions can be judged working towards that goal. Its not as easy as just saying we want more.

We have all heard the term 'managing to zero'. That is about sitting by and watching things trundle along with out intervention whether rising or crashing, while allowing as much opportunity as possible to appease the hunters. Doesn't mean
numbers are being forced down or that something is broken.

Once a mandate comes in that managers are to manage all wildlife to a higher number and to manage habitat to a higher holding capacity, there will be changes nobody will be happy about

[Sitkaspruce]

Sorry, but who really cares????

It's hunting season and right now, BC STILL has the best GOS in NA, so instead of worrying about a mistake that happened 4 months ago, focus on the next 2.5 months and go fill the freezer.

If it repeats it self, then maybe they have a problem, but making a post about what someone said on the internet without anything to back it up is picking the fly shit out of the pepper....

Now bring on hunting stories and pictures/videos of peoples adventures!!

Cheers

SS

[VFX_man]

But aren't the LEH draws also based on where you pick and the number of others who apply for the same MU? Pick a popular one and your chances are lower, no? The MU I got my moose LEH for is 70km off the main road, so not an "easy" to get to spot. The past years, my application was in more popular areas and I was SOL. They publish your "odds" so went for the one(s) with better odds and got a draw this year. Means I have to do more scouting and put in time, but at least I finally have a chance.

[quadrakid]

I,m with Sitkaspruce! As a side note. People on this site love to bash the people who operate the LEH system. The number of applications filled out improperly was in the range of one in four. Who are the real dummies?

[barry1974w]

I filled in the wrong number a few years ago. Got the draw, thought it was a mistake on the systems part. Couple months later I found my notes, not the systems fault, I wrote down the number below the one I wanted.....

[Squamch]

I like the LEH system. Been putting in for 19 years, had two moose draws in 5-04, and have shot zero moose. Strangely, I understand that the odds do NOT favour ANYONE....so I don't expect to get drawn!

[VFX_man]

I,m with Sitkaspruce! As a side note. People on this site love to bash the people who operate the LEH system. The number of applications filled out improperly was in the range of one in four. Who are the real dummies?

Made the same mistake this year too. Realized it AFTER I paid, so went back into the system, cancelled that "order" (no refund) and re-paid for the correct MU. :/

[Darksith]

I wonder how many people that "don't win ever" are being strategic about it. If you are entering a 5-1 draw and not winning I get it, but if you are entering a 5-1 draw with a group of 4, I would be surprised if you didn't win it once every 5 years or so

[bosch]

My gf's aunt got an island elk draw last year in an area she didn't even ask for. She's close to 80 and they gave her a bull draw for the Thasis area which is extremely rugged and to kick it off it was archery only. She doesn't even own a bow. One wasted tag which an arden bowhunter might have gotten.

[KodiakHntr]

I wonder how many people that "don't win ever" are being strategic about it. If you are entering a 5-1 draw and not winning I get it, but if you are entering a 5-1 draw with a group of 4, I would be surprised if you didn't win it once every 5 years or so

How do you figure that one?

[Darksith]

My gf's aunt got an island elk draw last year in an area she didn't even ask for. She's close to 80 and they gave her a bull draw for the Thasis area which is extremely rugged and to kick it off it was archery only. She doesn't even own a bow. One wasted tag which an arden bowhunter might have gotten.
Human error, plain and simple


How do you figure that one?
if you have 4 chances to win 5-1 rather than 1 chance, your odds of success will be higher, also thinking about reduced odds as that definitely plays a part as we have lost 1.4-1 drawings going in on shared hunts of 4 in the past.