70 Million Sockeye - Early Prediction

[Sasqman]

Keeping my fingers crossed....................this could be epic!

http://www.news1130.com/2014/04/02/massive-salmon-run-predicted-this-year-in-the-fraser-river/comment-page-1/#comments

[M.Dean]

My 1 to 4 1/2 ounce Bouncing Betty molds have being pouring out the little rounds balls quite steadily all ready! I can only sit for short periods at a time because of my back, but making weights is a great hobby, and you can even make a few bucks doing it! And, from the looks of things, Betty's are going to be hard to find if you wait until they open the Frazer for Sockeye! Think I might take a tall Bar Stool to sit on so I can stand up to cast, then sit down well I reel in. Might be a good idea too if I tie a rope around my waist and get the Grand Kids to hang on to it in case Papa falls off the stool well screaming "Spring On"!!! And, hopefully the Fishery's will up the limit so a guy can take 4 or 5 home each time to help fill the freezer!

[r106]

I'm hoping there right but I wont hold my breath. That run 4 years ago was awesome. Wake up at 4:30 go fishing, cast 5 times catch limit go to work and repeat.

[solo]

I don't believe for a minute that DFO has any idea at all what the numbers for this year's sockeye run will be. Year after year they come out with a prediction that never matches reality. I think it would be far better for them to put some effort into determining what the survival and growth rates for these fish are, at all of their life stages, from egg to spawner, than guessing about return numbers and basing an entire season's fishery on what seems no better than tea leaf reading.

[Rhyno]

I don't believe for a minute that DFO has any idea at all what the numbers for this year's sockeye run will be. Year after year they come out with a prediction that never matches reality. I think it would be far better for them to put some effort into determining what the survival and growth rates for these fish are, at all of their life stages, from egg to spawner, than guessing about return numbers and basing an entire season's fishery on what seems no better than tea leaf reading.

I couldn't agree more! I am going to guess that there psychic is wrong again this year.

[300H&H]

I have always wanted to go for salmon but have no experience or person to show me the "ropes".
Can anyone help me get started ?
PS I only have a 10' aluminum and ores. Thats all I need here on the small lakes.

[coach]

I have always wanted to go for salmon but have no experience or person to show me the "ropes".
Can anyone help me get started ?
PS I only have a 10' aluminum and ores. Thats all I need here on the small lakes.

I just might know a guy who has the boat, equipment and knowledge of the fishery who can get you started..:-D

[tim3500]

Just cant wait to see all the mayham going to be a ugly mess !!!!

[guest]

Believe it when I see it ......... science has shown ........ its a guessing game I will say 2010 WAS INCREDIBLE !

[slowkey]

This report is a little misleading. I read an article (cant remember the site) about a month ago that the estimate was anywhere from 25 million to 70 million fish. The 70 million being if all the stars aligned but this should still be a big run

[markomoose]

The DFO prediction is rarely correct.Better odds in vegas

[.300WSMImpact!]

I just might know a guy who has the boat, equipment and knowledge of the fishery who can get you started..:-D

I know another guy that would love to join you!!

[300H&H]

I just might know a guy who has the boat, equipment and knowledge of the fishery who can get you started..:-D

Ooooo.....do tell !!! Is he the kind of guy who likes RYE or has a preference for GOLF @ Preditor Ridge ?


I know another guy that would love to join you!!

He can come to...he just needs RYE or a round of GOLF ;-)

[albravo2]

I'm very excited about this year. Sockeye is my favorite kind of salmon.

Unfortunately, it is going to be a sh*t-show many places along the river. Four years ago a whole bunch of people that had never fished before heard that it was a cheap way to eat and they were everywhere.

I don't know the Fraser that well but I plan to do some scouting this summer with the boat in hopes of getting somewhere a little less crowded. I don't mind fishing alongside fishermen if I have to but I don't want to witness the shore chaos of four summers ago.

[IronNoggin]

I don't believe for a minute that DFO has any idea at all what the numbers for this year's sockeye run will be.


This report is a little misleading. I read an article (cant remember the site) about a month ago that the estimate was anywhere from 25 million to 70 million fish.

The initial announcement regarding the Fraser sockeye run projection courtesy of DFO was "Seven to Seventy Million". :roll:
Likely more accuracy in the "tea leaf reading" you referred to solo.
Little more than throwing darts at the board.

Of course people generally being "optimists" and/or hoping for another easy gravy train latch onto the higher number on pretty well every occasion. Realistically the run will probably near 30 million. Still a pile of fish, and still enough to generate the Gong Show on the flow. Something I FOR SURE will be Desperately Avoiding!

Cheers,
Nog

[guest]

Thats why I like to fish em Chuck side ........ there your daily quota is 4 too rather then 2 and the GONG show up stream......... take that in from time to time but prefer the Chuck.

Also bang into Mr. Big Spring while ur at er.

[adriaticum]

Let's count the chickens when they hatch. Last time we all got excited about an "estimate" we had an inquiry about it.

[kyleklassen]

I remember years ago when I was commercial fishing they had a huge sockeye run forecast....they were saying there was a school of fish 20 miles long out there....of course it never showed up...the cartoonist in the local paper summed it up best with a drawing that was titled "What really happened to the sockeye" and showed a giant UFO vacuuming them out of the ocean.

[Caribou_lou]

You guys don't need that many! Give 5 million of them a one way ticket to the Skeena please.

[.300WSMImpact!]

Ooooo.....do tell !!! Is he the kind of guy who likes RYE or has a preference for GOLF @ Preditor Ridge ?



He can come to...he just needs RYE or a round of GOLF ;-)

I can supply the rye, I golf at his place of employment, I am sure that wouldn't be fun

[coach]

I can supply the rye, I golf at his place of employment, I am sure that wouldn't be fun

Plan on a pretty good overnighter on the Fraser this summer. That boat you just bought from me has seen a ton of fish over the years. Likely you'll have a group of guys following you around thinking you know all the "secrets"..:-D

Guys are right - DFO has a real tough time estimating how many fish will return. There's so many variables that are difficult to figure out. The biggest is ocean survival. After years of poor returns, the 2010's massive run was the result of perfect ocean conditions - meaning great survival rates at sea. Hopefully we see 30 million or so again this year and hopefully water levels and temperatures in the Fraser are fish friendly.

[MichelD]

As usual, News 1130 oversimplifies and sensationalizes the events it reports on.

Here is an item from the April edition of Pacific Fishing magazine.

DFO's science branch has forecast a broad range of anywhere from 7.3 million to 72.3 million fish coming back with 23 million in the mid range of that forecast.


Les Jantz, DFO’s Area Director for the Interior says that there is a high level of uncertainty about this year’s run because the very large spawning escapements associated with the historic high returns in the brood year 2010 are well outside the range of the historical data used to make forecasts.
The run size in 2010 was 28.36 million, with 13,100,000 spawners assessed on the ground.


“That is the largest escapement we have recorded information for,” Jantz said, explaining that the Adams River component is the dominant cycle for the 2010/2014 run. “There were a number of areas that had escapements four to five times larger than ever recorded. Hence the uncertainty. “
Of the 23 million sockeye expected to return, there are 13 million late-run (Adams River), 5.5 million summer run fish, just over 4 million early summers and about 300,000 Stuart River sockeye.


“Those are pretty reasonable returns,” Jantz said. “We are hopeful that Mother Nature will come through.”

[Sasquatch]

I know DFO is wrong sometimes (ahem) But I'm keeping my fingers crossed for the higher numbers. Costs the same as being pessimistic.

I might wait a bit before ordering a bigger freezer though.

[Iron Glove]

Starting to feel good about the move to Hope. :mrgreen:
5 minute walk to the Fraser, stand in line and wait my turn, couple of casts to snag, er I mean catch my limit, walk back to the house, smoker already to go ...............
And if it's too much of a gong show, probably $5 a fish behind the Legion. :wink:

[russm]

Starting to feel good about the move to Hope. :mrgreen:
5 minute walk to the Fraser, stand in line and wait my turn, couple of casts to snag, er I mean catch my limit, walk back to the house, smoker already to go ...............
And if it's too much of a gong show, probably $5 a fish behind the Legion. :wink:

Don't support those *******s and there roadside sockeye stands, any of the spots they set up at and sell fish should be shut down and their fish should be confiscated....

[Iron Glove]

Don't support those *******s and there roadside sockeye stands, any of the spots they set up at and sell fish should be shut down and their fish should be confiscated....

You did notice the "wink", didn't you. :confused:

[russm]

Wasn't sure if it was a good wink or not lol

[Iron Glove]

Wasn't sure if it was a good wink or not lol

Well, at $5 a sockeye, hmm. :mrgreen:
Hey, I don't support the selling of what I consider to be poached fish.
If there was a commercial gill net opening up here and the fishermen were selling them, fine.

[Camp Cook]

and I don't buy fish I catch them supporting my local fishing supply stores instead of some .......................

[walks with deer]

Already pre buying line hooks and reels.
Mold I working over time... 9 rod and reel combos ready to throw.

Not going to be short anything when the time comes.

[M.Dean]

Already pre buying line hooks and reels.
Mold I working over time... 9 rod and reel combos ready to throw.

Not going to be short anything when the time comes. And I'm stock piling enough Bouncing Betty's to bend the axis on a CN Freight train! And, as a side note, well I'm thinking about weights, a few years back all the places wanted Betty's with the plastic coating on them. We did them Black and some Blue, looked real nice, we even brushed in the numbers on quite a few of them! Well, when I was down fishing the Frazer,I started using the plastic coated ones cuz they looked better, but, after about 15 or 20 cast's the plastic was hanging off them like Velvet off a 4 point Bucks horns! And no, I wasn't using some No Name brand of Plastic coating, I used some of the most expensive stuff on the shelves! Now, just the though of thousands and thousands of pieces of this rubber like plastic floating in the river makes me wonder why no one's noticed it before? So, just a bug in your ear's, if possible buy the weight's without the Plastic Coating on them, they look good, but will make a hell of a mess if we continue making them, and if you buy them!

[coach]

And I'm stock piling enough Bouncing Betty's to bend the axis on a CN Freight train! And, as a side note, well I'm thinking about weights, a few years back all the places wanted Betty's with the plastic coating on them. We did them Black and some Blue, looked real nice, we even brushed in the numbers on quite a few of them! Well, when I was down fishing the Frazer,I started using the plastic coated ones cuz they looked better, but, after about 15 or 20 cast's the plastic was hanging off them like Velvet off a 4 point Bucks horns! And no, I wasn't using some No Name brand of Plastic coating, I used some of the most expensive stuff on the shelves! Now, just the though of thousands and thousands of pieces of this rubber like plastic floating in the river makes me wonder why no one's noticed it before? So, just a bug in your ear's, if possible buy the weight's without the Plastic Coating on them, they look good, but will make a hell of a mess if we continue making them, and if you buy them!

Good point, M. Dean. On top of that, I find the feel is much better once the condom falls off anyway.. :shock:

[lip_ripper00]

And I'm stock piling enough Bouncing Betty's to bend the axis on a CN Freight train! And, as a side note, well I'm thinking about weights, a few years back all the places wanted Betty's with the plastic coating on them. We did them Black and some Blue, looked real nice, we even brushed in the numbers on quite a few of them! Well, when I was down fishing the Frazer,I started using the plastic coated ones cuz they looked better, but, after about 15 or 20 cast's the plastic was hanging off them like Velvet off a 4 point Bucks horns! And no, I wasn't using some No Name brand of Plastic coating, I used some of the most expensive stuff on the shelves! Now, just the though of thousands and thousands of pieces of this rubber like plastic floating in the river makes me wonder why no one's noticed it before? So, just a bug in your ear's, if possible buy the weight's without the Plastic Coating on them, they look good, but will make a hell of a mess if we continue making them, and if you buy them!


you HAVE to use the coating it quieter fish can't hear it! Damn Interior guys know nothing!!!

[russm]

Kind of off topic but does anyone know if they did away with parking up at the scale bar? If I remember correctly they did a while back but i didn't make it up that way for the last opening.

[lip_ripper00]

yes they did ,but instead they put a pull out in with a 5 min. max parking zone. They also put in a ladder lock rack so you can, stop put your ladder in the rack, lock it, park your car and go back and pick up your ladder for a minimal charge........

[M.Dean]

Good point, M. Dean. On top of that, I find the feel is much better once the condom falls off anyway.. :shock: Yes, casting "Bare Back" gives a guy way more pleasure for sure! But, on the down side, with out that thin plastic layer of protection, you do run the risk of premature "E cast a lation"!