Anticipated salmon run could overwhelm Fraser River this summer, experts say

[Ozone]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/anticipated-salmon-run-could-overwhelm-fraser-river-this-summer-experts-say/article17336330/

If the early signals are correct, the Fraser River could have the biggest salmon run in B.C. history this summer, with up to 72 million sockeye returning.
That would be more than double the record number that came back in 2010, when about 30 million sockeye flooded into the Fraser, overwhelming fish plants with such bounty they ran out of ice and storage boxes.

“I mean, it’s hard to fathom,” Rollie Rose, president of Sooke Salmon Charters Ltd., said in an interview of the magnitude of the projections from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans.
He told colleagues in a recent e-mail: “The news could not be any better … you will see fishing this year better than you have seen in your lifetime.”
Good ocean conditions for salmon in the past two years have resulted in forecasts of big runs all along the West Coast, extending into the United States, where officials recently predicted three million Chinook and coho for the Columbia River.
But the Fraser is expected to get the biggest return because the sockeye coming back are the progeny of the 2010 run, which was the largest in nearly 100 years.
Les Jantz, DFO’s acting area director for the B.C. Interior, said it is too early to say with certainty just how many sockeye will return. The forecast ranges from a low of 7.3 million to a high of 72.5 million.
If it is at the high end, he said, it will top anything seen in the Fraser “as long as we’ve been keeping records.”
Even at a conservative mid-range estimate of 23 million sockeye, it would be a prodigious run in a river where stocks have declined dramatically for nearly two decades, with runs of two to four million common. The run hit a low of 1.3 million in 2009 before bouncing back unexpectedly the next year in what many thought was a “one off” event.
In 2010, DFO saw signs of a good year and predicted four million to 29 million sockeye would return. As the season advanced, managers realized the high end would be reached.
A similar scenario may unfold this year, as fisheries managers begin to get hard data from sports anglers and commercial fishermen during early openings. By July, the numbers should be firm.
But Mr. Jantz said even at this early date, there is reason for excitement, because ocean conditions have been very good for salmon for the past three years, and a record number of young sockeye migrated out of the Fraser in the spring of 2012. Those fish would have encountered prime conditions, with upwellings of cold water that salmon prefer and are rich with the zooplankton and phytoplankton blooms young fish eat.
“We’re always cautious. That’s built into our system,” he said. “But it’s certainly looking good .”
Wilf Luedke, DFO’s chief of stock assessment on the south coast, said the Fraser is not the only watershed that is looking good.
Mr. Luedke said there are indications of strong chinook and coho runs to several rivers, and a big sockeye run is expected to the Somas River on Vancouver Island.
Like Mr. Jantz, he credited ocean conditions.
“That’s not the only factor, but it’s the biggest one,” he said.
He also noted that last year, large numbers of jack coho, chinook and sockeye returned to rivers. Jacks are immature fish that come back a year early. When a lot of them return, it usually signals a big run of mature fish will follow.
Mr. Luedke cautioned the forecast will not be certain until “ the hooks and nets hit the water.”
Ernie Crey, fisheries adviser to the Sto:lo Tribal Council, said the forecast numbers are amazing.
“I think sockeye will be a banner year,” he said.
But Mr. Crey urged DFO not to allow too much fishing before the actual size of the run is known.
“I say yes, be excited, and it’s wonderful we’re looking at this tremendous year in front of us. But I am always one to encourage them to exercise a bit of caution,” he said.

[adriaticum]

Lets jump before we say hop.

[pnbrock]

didn't we hear this before?didnt they loose a few million sockeye?won't believe it till i see it.

[tinhorse]

Perfect, record runs expected! Hopefully IF there is a large surplus it is shared equally among user groups and not just going to benefit just one group.

[rides bike to work]

Every year would be like 2010 if it weren't for those damn fish farms killing all the wild fish.

[albravo2]

A good run would be AWESOME. I filled my freezer with pinks last summer but you just can't compare the quality to sockeye.

Yeah, I know it isn't a 'sport' fishery if I have to floss them but they taste delicious and it is a great way to improve as a flyfisherman.

[lip_ripper00]

water is too warm, water is too low, not as many as projected, bla bla bla last record run they would not let us fish them down here, instead they electrocuted them and let them rot because their where too many and they where destroying the redds. we will see what happens this year........

[Foxtail]

Even if the let every sporty keep 5 a day, that wouldn't even make a small dent in this run if it comes in as forecast. Hopefully they open it right up or they will be zapping fish again.

[Ringo 7MM]

If there is a HUGE run of salmon this year, you can thank the giant plume of radioactive water that is coming, and has already arrived, from Japan's nuclear power plant that was destroyed in March 2011 by the earthquake and tidal wave that hit it. That is why the fishing in the Strait of Georgia was the best it has been in 20 years. Example - Coho fishing hasn't been as good as it was in 2013, since 1993. Most Sea Life is heading east toward us, to get away from the deadly plume of radioactive water which is getting worse every day, soon they will have no place to hide. Check out ENE news.com if you do not believe me. Our future does not look to good.

[BradB]

water is too warm, water is too low, not as many as projected, bla bla bla last record run they would not let us fish them down here, instead they electrocuted them and let them rot because their where too many and they where destroying the redds. we will see what happens this year........

Where were they electrocuting sockeye? And who were "They"?

[BradB]

Salmon forecasts are never given as a finite number. As stated in the article, it ranges from 7 million on the low end and 75 million on the high end. The real expected number would be somewhere smack in the middle. The factors going into this forecast are varied and that's why the large margin of error. The reality is, spawn success in 2010 and fry survival will be huge indicators of returns. I can't even begin to guess what will actually happen, but I suspect we'll see some river openings and full freezers.

[lip_ripper00]

Where were they electrocuting sockeye? And who were "They"?


I am working off a goofy note book and will try to find the article I think it was in the Province, read the link below,this was another way fisheries tried to keep the over abundance of fish out of the spawning grounds


http://www.kamloopsnews.ca/article/20100827/KAMLOOPS0101/308279989/-1/KAMLOOPS/ocean-boat-expects-big-haul-of-kamloops-lake-sockeye

[BradB]

Yep. That program I'm familiar with. The idea there isn't to limit the number of fish getting to the spawning grounds, but rather to harvest closer to the spawning grounds so as to be more selective of what stocks get targeted by commercial fishers. When harvest takes place in the ocean, there is no control of what stocks are being targeted. If a seiner happens to intercept a school of fish all bound for Sinta Creek, they could wipe out that year's run. Taking more of the total allowable catch from places like Kamloops Lake helps lower the likelihood of that happening because the populations that travel through there are all generally healthy.

[squeeze]

Generate a bit of public noise - standard PR tactic. Government agencies rely on people not reading past the headlines and hoards of instant experts from a single projection.

Whatever.

If the sockeye runs are 30+ million for 5 years in a row, I'll give a fresh turd what these individuals say. That aside, I'd like to hear about the upper Fraser chinook and coho returns and then, I'd like to hear about rest of the Fraser stocks that have been beaten down by development, habitat loss and mismanagement. How about the Fraser basin steelhead while we're at it?

:?

[835]

only reason this is possibly to be a record is because the bumper run went wround the outside of the Island...

[hare_assassin]

only reason this is possibly to be a record is because the bumper run went wround the outside of the Island...

Thus avoiding the farm plagues?

[835]

Correct........

[Chopper]

Supposed to be over a million Chinooks coming back to the Columbia as well ... 4 and 5 year fish. My buddy that owns a guide outfit on the west coast was talking about it at poker the other night. Story was its going to be epic !


Hope he's right

[squeeze]

Supposed to be over a million Chinooks coming back to the Columbia as well ... 4 and 5 year fish. My buddy that owns a guide outfit on the west coast was talking about it at poker the other night. Story was its going to be epic !


Hope he's right


Not to be a killjoy, good returns are GOOD, but:

1.) if memory serves, the Columbia is one of the most heavily enhanced (hatchery) rivers on the West Coast
2.) good Chinook returns in the Columbia does not equal good Chinook returns in the Fraser
3.) over the past 10 years the opening date on Fraser Chinooks has gotten later each year (used to be May 1st)

[North Arm Knives]

Lets hope they are right. Even if its like 4 years ago it will be a great year!

[mark]

4 years ago was the best river fishing ive ever seen in my life, sure hope its similar, cant wait!

[M.Dean]

I think I'll book a week off work to get in on the action!!! O yea, I don't work, I might just stay down there for a month fish'in this summer! Think I might practice casting that 3 1/2 oz Betty out back here a bit first tho, it's a little hard to learn well your standing in line with about 300 other guys, elbow to elbow on the sand bars!

[srupp]

If this epic return materializes..when and where would be a good place to fish these salmon?? Terrace?? Fraser valley??
Are the Chinooks expected big time also?? same questions..where..approz when?? I ahev fished the Skeena for salmon first week of July??same thing?? what about Fraser river??

cheers

Srupp

[Rupert Retired]

They have never electrocuted salmon, that is an urban myth that has been around for awhile, but there is no basis in fact. Could be confused by "shutting the fence", which I have also heard used broadly in condemnation, and which hatcheries and spawning channels do occasionally when their spawning areas reach capacity, but in those cases the remaining fish still spawn in other portions of the river or lake.

[russm]

Buy your bouncin Betty's now because come salmon season you won't be able to find them anywhere.

[Chopper]

Not to be a killjoy, good returns are GOOD, but:

1.) if memory serves, the Columbia is one of the most heavily enhanced (hatchery) rivers on the West Coast
2.) good Chinook returns in the Columbia does not equal good Chinook returns in the Fraser
3.) over the past 10 years the opening date on Fraser Chinooks has gotten later each year (used to be May 1st)

No they do not represent the Frazer but ... if your getting out on the west coast it should be sweet out on the Highway

[M.Dean]

Buy your bouncin Betty's now because come salmon season you won't be able to find them anywhere. WE used mainly 3 1/2's, some times three's, we were fishing below Island 22 I think it's called. Another thing, on one of our trips down there, we were anchored, I think it was on the Vedder, past the train bridge, we heard one hell'va pile of screaming from the crowd standing on the rocks and pylon's about 8 hundred yards down from us! My son yelled at me to pull up the anchor, but my back was 100 percent screwed up, and I had a big bulge in my Aorta, so pulling up a 30 pound anchor was well beyond me! I guess what happened was one guy fell off the log's, he was wearing hip waders, and two other guys jumped in trying to help him, we found out later the guy with the waders didn't make it, and one of the other guys trying to help dam near drowned too. A guy up from us had a Jet boat, and I think they'd just got there when this all happened, he was there in 30 seconds or less, but I guess the waders kept the guy on or near the bottom. It can happen to anyone!

[coach]

WE used mainly 3 1/2's, some times three's, we were fishing below Island 22 I think it's called. Another thing, on one of our trips down there, we were anchored, I think it was on the Vedder, past the train bridge, we heard one hell'va pile of screaming from the crowd standing on the rocks and pylon's about 8 hundred yards down from us! My son yelled at me to pull up the anchor, but my back was 100 percent screwed up, and I had a big bulge in my Aorta, so pulling up a 30 pound anchor was well beyond me! I guess what happened was one guy fell off the log's, he was wearing hip waders, and two other guys jumped in trying to help him, we found out later the guy with the waders didn't make it, and one of the other guys trying to help dam near drowned too. A guy up from us had a Jet boat, and I think they'd just got there when this all happened, he was there in 30 seconds or less, but I guess the waders kept the guy on or near the bottom. It can happen to anyone!

Horrible incident. I wasn't there but do remember hearing about it. The Fraser may look peaceful but it's fast, deep river. Waders are definitley not necessary during the summer and life jackets should be worn at all times when in a boat.

[coach]

If this epic return materializes..when and where would be a good place to fish these salmon?? Terrace?? Fraser valley??
Are the Chinooks expected big time also?? same questions..where..approz when?? I ahev fished the Skeena for salmon first week of July??same thing?? what about Fraser river??

cheers
Srupp

Steven,

The best fishing is between Abbotsford and Hope - although I prefer the Aggasiz area. Timing is usually late July through mid-September - depending on when it opens. Springs will be present during that time and can be caught with the same technique used for sockeye or by bar fishing - although they usually hang in slightly deeper and faster water. The best week of the year for both species is the last week of August. I can give you a lot more info via PM if you decide to plan a trip.

There is also a fishery closer to you - in the Thompson near the mouth of Kamloops Lake. I've never tried there but know guys who have. I would assume the condition of the fish won't be a nice as in the lower Fraser. There's also a fishery near Lillooet.

[EGLPNT]

Nice little diversion tactic, Ozone ;-)

[luckofthedraw]

I think I'll book a week off work to get in on the action!!! O yea, I don't work, I might just stay down there for a month fish'in this summer! Think I might practice casting that 3 1/2 oz Betty out back here a bit first tho, it's a little hard to learn well your standing in line with about 300 other guys, elbow to elbow on the sand bars!

I totally hear ya there. I've never been much of a river fisherman…not that I don't like it. I just enjoy fishing for peace and quiet most of the time, not standing shoulder to shoulder with a stranger fighting for a 5 foot chunk of land. I guess this is just something I'm going to have to learn to deal with.

[luckofthedraw]

Steven,

The best fishing is between Abbotsford and Hope - although I prefer the Aggasiz area. Timing is usually late July through mid-September - depending on when it opens. Springs will be present during that time and can be caught with the same technique used for sockeye or by bar fishing - although they usually hang in slightly deeper and faster water. The best week of the year for both species is the last week of August. I can give you a lot more info via PM if you decide to plan a trip.

There is also a fishery closer to you - in the Thompson near the mouth of Kamloops Lake. I've never tried there but know guys who have. I would assume the condition of the fish won't be a nice as in the lower Fraser. There's also a fishery near Lillooet.


I plan on giving the Thompson a go this year. Would there be a big, noticiable difference in appearance and taste of the fish. Im sure they are a bit more beat up, but still good eating. Correct?

[Ozone]

Nice little diversion tactic, Ozone ;-)

From what?

[coach]

I plan on giving the Thompson a go this year. Would there be a big, noticiable difference in appearance and taste of the fish. Im sure they are a bit more beat up, but still good eating. Correct?

The guys I talked to said they were still good. Not sure what that was in comparison to.. :-D

[BiG Boar]

Wouldn't it be amazing if we had enough wild salmon that all the penned salmon were put out of business? What a concept!

[Steeleco]

It's too bad they can't save some of the eggs and use them to prop up the bad run years. Cryogenics has to be good for something?

[lip_ripper00]

Buy your bouncin Betty's now because come salmon season you won't be able to find them anywhere.

Spark plugs............ bend the electrode tight.......:mrgreen:

[EGLPNT]

Wouldn't it be amazing if we had enough wild salmon that all the penned salmon were put out of business? What a concept!

......Agreed......

[Ozone]

Wouldn't it be amazing if we had enough wild salmon that all the penned salmon were put out of business? What a concept!

Do you also wish there were enough deer to put the cattle farmer out of business?

[BiG Boar]

Do you also wish there were enough deer to put the cattle farmer out of business?

Yes. That would make me very happy.

[goatdancer]

I plan on giving the Thompson a go this year. Would there be a big, noticiable difference in appearance and taste of the fish. Im sure they are a bit more beat up, but still good eating. Correct?

A lot of the chinook running up the Shuswap River are silver when they reach Enderby. During the massive sockeye run a few years ago, a lot of the sockeye were just lightly tinged pink.

[boxhitch]

Overwhelming yet ?

[Eastbranch]

Still 50/50 of exceeding 23 million sockeye, as of July 4. It's going to be a bloodbath and the chinooks and coho are going to take a bycatch pounding bad enough to put them in a hole they will probably never recover from. Sounds like the stolo are gearing up to hammer the early stuarts even though they're coming in at a trickle and predicted to be low again (and the temp is already up past 16*C). It's gonna be a bad year to be a fish in the fraser.

[tubby]

Most bands been netting hard since end of April, legally and illegally

[Eastbranch]

^Targeting chinook. Most are not fishing yet to allow early stuarts to pass. If you think this is 'hard' wait til the real sockeye show up. Latest update was a drop in the predicted early stuart run size estimate and no additional on the adams run.

[Piperdown]

FN's had already pulled out 6000 springs out of the fraser as of a week ago. Good thing we let them all swim by to get to the spawning grounds, fish first my arse!

[Wentrot]

That's sickening if your numbers are true. All ceremonial to I am guessing :roll: