WCVI Salmon Bulletin

Area 23 (Barkley Sound, Alberni Inlet) Sockeye
Forecast for the 2023 Return
24 April 2023
SUMMARY

➢ For 2023 fishery management purposes, the Area 23 Roundtable has agreed to begin fisheries in
the “Moderate” zone (500 000–700 000 adult return) for early season harvest management.
Henderson Lake Sockeye remain a constraining stock in the “Low” zone.

​➢ There is uncertainty among the 2023 forecast models. Predictions (Table 3) vary between
145 000 (Sea Surface Temperature), 276 000 (Coho Leading Indicator model), 465 000
(multivariate model), and 723 000 (sibling model). Forecast models for the 2023 aggregate
Somass Sockeye return are described in Appendix A.

​➢ All forecast models suggest Sproat Lake Sockeye will comprise the majority of the 2023 run. In
2019 and 2020 (broods returning as age 4 and 3 fish, respectively in 2023), escapements of
Great Central Lake Sockeye were abnormally low (Figure 5). In addition, the estimated juvenile
Sockeye abundances in Great Central Lake and Sproat Lake in the 2020 and 2021 sea-entry
years were low compared to historic levels. Returns from the 2020 sea-entry year have thus far
indicated a high marine survival rate, but the marine survival rate for the 2021 sea-entry year is
more uncertain. Therefore, a precautionary management approach for early season fisheries is
warranted until the total run size and stock composition can be more accurately determined. In-
season estimates of stock composition will be available during the second and third weeks of
June; the first run size reforecast is expected 22 June 2023.

​➢ The recommended management outlook for Henderson Sockeye is the “Low” zone for harvest
management, corresponding to an expected return of 15 000–25 000 (Table 4). The key
consideration influencing this outlook is a high marine survival rate in 2020, and moderate
spawner abundances in the main contributing brood years, 2018–2019.

​https://waves-vagues.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/l...e/41110250.pdf