LEH is out!

[Ron.C]

My old man put in for island elk for over forty years and no luck and now he never will. I'm starting to feel like it's rigged to.

Luck of the draw. My buddy has been drawn for 2 island elk draws (in different areas) and I was drawn once in a 5 year span.

I know 2 others who have been drawn twice, both in a highly coveted archery area.

In the past 12 years i've got 4 goat leh's, 1 griz, 1 moose, 1 island elk.

Goat leh's were almost gimme odds, all others were better than 20:1.

Do I think its rigged? No because I don't know why I or any of lucky folks I know would be chosen over anyone else. All average joe's that dont really know anyone who would influence this.

Luck of the draw...

[HappyJack]

My old man put in for island elk for over forty years and no luck and now he never will. I'm starting to feel like it's rigged to.

There is definitely something wrong when some fellows never get a draw and others can win 5 or 7 years in a row [moose], especially with the
BS that there is such a thing as 'reduced odds'. Some of those coveted draws should be a once in a lifetime to spread the wealth around a bit. I feel bad for people that continually get NIL, at least I live where my opportunities are still there even when I don't get an leh.

[CR CRUISER]

Zip for me and my hunting partner. Forty years of blanks for him. Now my daughter on the other hand, 2 island elk and 2 5-1 moose in the past 5 years.

[abbyfireguy]

Nothing again!
I guess this means more fishing in the fall.

[Rampager]

This thread makes me wonder if most folks don't understand the concept of odds.

If a group of 4 puts in for a 1:2 odds moose draw, say in a remote spot of nothern BC, the odds are very good they get drawn (approx 94% chance)

If a group of 4 puts in for a 1:50+ odds moose draw closer to the lower mainland it is likely they'll go a decade without getting drawn (approx 8% chance)

These things are not the same, and I bet those whining that they haven't gotten a draw in so many years are in the latter group and are crying that it's "unfair".

Island elk is the other one.. the average rifle bull draw odds are approx. 1:100. That means you are not likely to get drawn in your lifetime assuming you put in every year from ages 20-80. So yes, never getting an island elk draw IS the expected outcome.

But I guess it's easier to blame the government rather than apply high school level math and be accountable for your own actions.

[vincentcui]

This thread makes me wonder if most folks don't understand the concept of odds.

If a group of 4 puts in for a 1:2 odds moose draw, say in a remote spot of nothern BC, the odds are very good they get drawn (approx 94% chance)

If a group of 4 puts in for a 1:50+ odds moose draw closer to the lower mainland it is likely they'll go a decade without getting drawn (approx 8% chance)

These things are not the same, and I bet those whining that they haven't gotten a draw in so many years are in the latter group and are crying that it's "unfair".

Island elk is the other one.. the average rifle bull draw odds are approx. 1:100. That means you are not likely to get drawn in your lifetime assuming you put in every year from ages 20-80. So yes, never getting an island elk draw IS the expected outcome.

But I guess it's easier to blame the government rather than apply high school level math and be accountable for your own actions.

Well said. Odd is just a number representing probability of a draw; though my family had never drew anything other than 4 doe since 2010, considering doe draw odd is around 20:1 (translate to 1 in 20 year per hunter, 1 per 20 hunter, or 5% probability), we are already placed on the better side of the luck spectrum.

[mikeman20]

This thread makes me wonder if most folks don't understand the concept of odds.

If a group of 4 puts in for a 1:2 odds moose draw, say in a remote spot of nothern BC, the odds are very good they get drawn (approx 94% chance)

If a group of 4 puts in for a 1:50+ odds moose draw closer to the lower mainland it is likely they'll go a decade without getting drawn (approx 8% chance)

These things are not the same, and I bet those whining that they haven't gotten a draw in so many years are in the latter group and are crying that it's "unfair".

Island elk is the other one.. the average rifle bull draw odds are approx. 1:100. That means you are not likely to get drawn in your lifetime assuming you put in every year from ages 20-80. So yes, never getting an island elk draw IS the expected outcome.

But I guess it's easier to blame the government rather than apply high school level math and be accountable for your own actions.

Problem is, Highschool math is beyond a lot of people!

[igojuone]

First time successful for me, got a Cow/calf moose draw outside Revelstoke, 4-38 Zone D and a mule Antlerless in region 3. Anyone got advice on 4-38, never been up there to hunt. Antlerless Mule shouldn't be an issue.

[Bullreaper]

Just curious. Not that I know many people, but everyone I’ve heard of getting drawn for moose in 7B, lives in that area. Any southerners get a 7B moose draw?

[twoSevenO]

Just curious. Not that I know many people, but everyone I’ve heard of getting drawn for moose in 7B, lives in that area. Any southerners get a 7B moose draw?

How many southerners even applied? Lol with these gas prices it wouldn't surprise me if most decided to apply to reg 3 or 5 instead.

I know I did